Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 130318 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
918 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Current forecast is on track, therefore no major changes made at
this time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 326 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

The Arctic front has pushed through the CWA this afternoon with
several locations already falling to zero or colder. Many locations
are losing their gusty winds with blowing snow ending over most of
the CWA. The strongest winds are currently over northeast SD and
west central MN where webcams still indicate some blowing snow
issues. As winds continue to diminish, well expire the winter
weather adv for our eastern CWA at 21Z.

For tonight, the Arctic high pressure will be located over the
region with winds becoming light and variable. Under clear skies,
temperatures should fall quickly into the teens below, to 20 degrees
below zero. Even with sustained winds of 3 mph, wind chill values of
25 below to 35 degrees below zero are likely. Even though our wind
chill criteria calls for 5 mph winds or greater, will still issue a
headline and lean on impacts. A weak upper level disturbance will
track across the region late tonight into Friday morning with light
snowfall possible. With a dry airmass in place, snowfall amounts of
a dusting to a half inch will be possible.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

The main weather maker in the long term remains the ejecting upper
low on Monday night and Tuesday. The latest models continue to be
somewhat complimentary of each other in progging the southwest CONUS
upper low getting kicked northeast into the Central Plains early
next week. The precipitation shield associated with this system is
still expected to remain mostly south and east of the CWA. However,
with the southeast CONUS ridge holding strong, would not be all that
surprised if future runs trend west and north with the pcpn.

Temperatures overall should favor near or even above normal as the
recent arctic airmass gets replaced by a milder airmass of Pacific
origin. The main limiting factor holding back temperatures next week
will be the resident snow cover over the forecast area.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight through the
day Friday.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Chill Advisory until 7 AM CST /6 AM MST/ Friday for
     SDZ003>011-015>023-034-036-037.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 7 AM CST Friday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Parkin



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