Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 040530 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1130 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

FIRST BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS IS PRETTY MUCH A MEMORY NOW. JUST A
LONE SHOWER LEFT BY BRYANT...HEADING SOUTHEAST. WAITING NOW FOR
THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED BATCH OF SNOW
SHOWERS/BANDED LIGHT SNOW WORKING DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA IN THIS
LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME. THIS INCOMING BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD GLANCE THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF SOUTH DAKOTA OVER INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE PRAIRIE COTEAU
TERRAIN FEATURE WILL ALSO LIKELY AIDE IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED...PROBABLY LOOKING AT A LIGHT DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS AN
INCH OR SO OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATING OUT OF THIS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. MINIMAL CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME SPOTS ARE JUST A FEW DEGREES OFF THEIR
FORECAST LOWS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WAA LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS AND MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

A WEAK FEATURE AT 700MB...ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO A LACK OF SNOW COVER HAS
RESULTED IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE MAIN
WAVE...LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...WILL CAUSE MORE WIDESPREAD
ALBEIT LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES TONIGHT.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE EXPECT FAVORABLE
MIXING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
ON THE ORDER OF -6 TO -12C WHICH IS COMPARABLE TO WHAT WAS MODELED
TODAY SO WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT THE SAME.

THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE COMES TO US ON FRIDAY IN THE FORM
OF ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE IS
EXTREMELY WEAK WITH ONLY 1 TO 3 MICROBARS OF LIFT AT ANY GIVEN
TIME/LAYER. PROFILES ALSO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW WITH THIS ONE...BUT
WITH SUCH WEAK OMEGA VALUES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH FOR
ACCUMULATIONS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD WARMER AS
WELL...THOUGH SUNSHINE MAY NOT REACH EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY UNTIL
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND MILD AS WAA WILL BE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
A BIT FASTER AND FURTHER EAST AND THEREBY PRODUCING LESS
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH A SMALL POP BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN APPROACHES AND TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAA IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FROM EAST TO WEST
ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 30S EVERYWHERE ON SUNDAY. WILL THEN SEE
JUST A SLIGHT COOLING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY AND IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 30S ON
TUESDAY. MAY SEE WARMER AIR MOVE BACK IN LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS BACK UP IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR FLYING WEATHER AT KMBG...KABR AND KATY COULD BE THREATENED BY
SOME MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE
STRATUS CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS.
VFR WEATHER SHOULD BECOME THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN


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