Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 040912
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
412 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AIDED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE PROPAGATING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
CWA. MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
EXTREME NE CORNER OF OUR CWA AND POINTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...AS
DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY A LLJ WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING...AND ALONG WITH VERY HIGH PW VALUES THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORM ACTIVITY. THE MAJORITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA HOWEVER.

VERY MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT
SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE STORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND 00Z
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND AS A 40+ KT LLJ DEVELOPS
DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH VERY HIGH PW VALUES ONCE AGAIN ABOVE
1.75 INCHES... ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO
HELP TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR A FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS
AS WELL. THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR...AND MORE STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE 00Z MODELS ALL BASICALLY CONTINUE THE TREND NOTED BY YESTERDAY`S
DAY-SHIFT. SECONDARY FROPA TIMING WAS SPED UP A LITTLE BIT IN THE
00Z MODELS...PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA BASICALLY DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT FORECAST PERIOD. SUPERBLEND POPS KEPT ALL THE PRECIP CHANCES
RELEGATED TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT SECONDARY FROPA/...WITH A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO PROG A DRY AND
COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LATE TNT AND EARLY FRIDAY PATCHY FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AT
KATY/KABR. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. A WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY PROVIDING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LUECK
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN/TDK


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