Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 280524 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1224 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

No major changes this evening. Late night LLJ driven storms are
still possible over the east so will leave that in the forecast.
Temperatures look fine and should fall off to far given LLJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SO
FAR ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED TO THE NORTH. STILL
WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BACK-BUILD SOUTH INTO
ROBERTS/TRAVERSE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...WILL ALSO BE WATCHING AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND THE
THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL SD AND INTO
MN. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

HOTTER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S. RATHER LOW RH VALUES STILL FORECAST
OVER CENTRAL SD...MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSOURI OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONE
267 WHERE READINGS COULD DIP TO 20 PERCENT OR BELOW. IT STILL
APPEARS WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW RFW CRITERIA SO NO HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA
ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SWITCHING TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

An upper level ridge will be situated to the west of our region to
begin the long term with a large upper level low pressure trough
moving into the west coast. The upper ridge will build slowly east
across our region through the week while the west coast trough
builds into the western U.S. With this setup, along with steady
south breezes and mostly sunny skies, the long term still looks to
be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Highs
will be in the 80s to the lower 90s for the entire period. It will
be dry through at least Thursday until short waves from the western
trough begin affecting the region. Thus, brought back chances of
showers and storms for Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the taf valid period. Isold
showers/storms are possible with LLJ overnight, and then again with
diabatic heating Sunday afternoon.  However with only isold coverage
expected will not include in any tafs at this time.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Wise


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