Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 032327 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN


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