Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 192029
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
329 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT WITH
RETURNING VERY WARM LOW LEVEL AIR ON THE BACKSIDE MOVING INTO OUR
CWA. THIS LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
CWA. 925H TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 30SC ON
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA
MAY REACH 40C AT 925H BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. FOR TONIGHT...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH WAA AND
A DEVELOPING LLJ LATER TONIGHT...MAY BRING SOME STORMS LATER
TONIGHT EAST IN THE REGION. ALREADY HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCES EAST OF
THE RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...50H HEIGHTS RISE ON SUNDAY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMING LOW AND MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REACH THE 90S ON
SUNDAY. ALONG WITH THE HEAT WILL COME INCREASING DEW POINTS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH 100 DEGREES SOUTH
IN THE CWA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 TO 75
DEGREES EAST.

THE OTHER ISSUE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT WEST MOVING EAST
ALONG A STRONG SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN SD.
WITH THIS GOOD SOURCE OF FOCUS/LIFT ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/CAPPING
SHOULD DETERMINE WHERE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. 70H TEMPERATURES
WERE SHOWN TO BE FROM +12 TO +16C ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING AND
MOISTURE ALONG WITH COOLING LIFT ALOFT TO BREAK THE CAP IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. THESE STORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ALONG LOW LCLS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND DECENT
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HAVE IN GOOD CHANCES OF STORMS AT THIS TIME
ACROSS THIS AREA INTO MONDAY EVENING.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN H7 S/W TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WARM TEMPS
AT H7 OF +11C OVER MOST OF THE CWA MAY LIMIT CONVECTION TO NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE THE CAP WILL BE MUCH WEAKER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
S/W BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WITH CONVECTION LIKELY. THE ECMWF IS
LESS EXCITED ABOUT CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO S/W. WILL RUN WITH
ALLBLEND POPS WHICH SHOWS A LOW END CHC POP ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER S/W...ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ALLBLEND
POP GUIDANCE HAS SOLID CHANCE FOR PCPN WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. COLDER
AND DRYER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH DEW
POINTS LIKELY DROPPING TO THE 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN ANY
PARTICULAR TAF SITE.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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