Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 130224
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
924 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.UPDATE...
LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSRA CONTS TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
AHEAD OF COLD FROPA FROM THE NORTH. LATEST RUC SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN WEAK ZONE OF 700HPA THETA-E
FORCING...ALTHOUGH FEEL THAT MOST WAS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND HAVE
SEEN A WEAKENING AS THE SUN SETS. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS MINOR LINE SAGGING SOUTH ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER GRIDS. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT ALREADY SENT.




&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 60S...70S AND 80S. A
BROAD AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IS TRUDGING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGES WORKING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL BEFALL THE FORECAST
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE
TABLE FOR SOME UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS A NORTHERN CANADIAN SOURCE-REGIONED
AIRMASS ADVECTS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. ON
MONDAY...IN PARTICULAR...925HPA THERMAL PROGS ARE IN THE LOW TEENS
WHILE 850HPA THERMAL PROGS ARE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA WHICH COULD END UP TRANSLATING INTO SOME
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD TIE OR BREAK LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.CLIMATOLOGY...AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
AND RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT. SEE BELOW:


MONDAY...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR MONDAY JULY FOURTEENTH...

...LOCATION......FORECAST....RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMP...
WHEATON MN.........63..............72 IN 1949
SISSETON...........64..............70 IN 1993
WATERTOWN..........64..............61 IN 1962
ABERDEEN...........66..............65 IN 1962
MOBRIDGE...........68..............64 IN 1962
PIERRE.............70..............65 IN 1989


MONDAY NIGHT...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING JULY FIFTEENTH...

CITY.........FORECAST TEMP...RECORD TEMP...YEAR SET
ABERDEEN...........49............41..........1912
KENNEBEC...........50............36..........1912
MOBRIDGE...........48............45..........1912
PIERRE.............49............52..........1961
SISSETON...........50............48..........1952
TIMBER LAKE........48............39..........1912
WATERTOWN..........47............38..........1912
WHEATON............50............46..........1924


&&


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL THE PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN OVER THE CWA FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. UNUSUALLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROF FOR THE TIME OF YEAR
DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAGS COLDER TO MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL AIR DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OUT OF CANADA. 8H TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SUGGESTS SOME PRETTY CHILLY HIGHS FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST. ALSO...ON WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS MAY
WELL DROP INTO THE 40S UNDER SFC HIGH. CHC OF RAIN AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAKE THEIR WAY BACK NORTH VIA SOUTH WINDS.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLD TRW-
SOUTH OF KMBG IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE KPIR TERMINAL. BECAUSE
OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE AFT
06Z...ESPECIALLY FOR THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS. THAT
SAID...LATEST AFC ANLYS SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTH SO
COULD BE A BIT DIFFICULT FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. WILL FOREGO
ANY MENTION ATTM AND MONITOR.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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