Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 221125 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
525 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
H925 TEMPERATURES RUN FROM +1 TO +6C THIS AM. A TROF DEVELOPS OUT
WEST TODAY...WHICH SHIFTS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WITH
A SHALLOW INVERSION...WILL SEE A RAPID WARM UP WITH PLENTY OF SUN
TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD THANKS TO
EFFICIENT MIXING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. MIXED DOWN WINDS ON
THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON. A 12 TO 16MB PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES IN...WHICH WILL KEEP
WINDS UP. A 1035MB HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP
A GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING TOWARDS
MINNESOTA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MIXED DOWN WINDS CONTINUE TO TOP
OUT AROUND 50MPH WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED TOWARDS EASTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS BEST FORCING IS ELSEWHERE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE NAM SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO PRECIPITATION
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WRAP AROUND QPF COULD REMAIN IN THE EAST FOR
MONDAY. OUR CURRENT SNOW PACK...IF IT REMAINS...WILL
REFREEZE...HOWEVER WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WILL THEN SEE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM
ARE FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS LOOK TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE CWA.
THERE ARE THEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE
MID PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWY AND BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SNOW
AREA. THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE
AREA...WITH NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A SMALL POP IN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
GFS AND GEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRICKY AS THEY WILL BE WARMER WITH THE
GFS/GEM SOLUTION AND MUCH COLDER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING KPIR. THIS FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AFTER 06Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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