Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 290029 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
729 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER THIS
EVENING...SPECIFICALLY WITH TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THE
MAIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT WAS JUST
WEST OF THE CWA AT 730 PM CDT...SO ADJUSTED POPS TO TRY AND TIME
ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THUNDER POTENTIAL
GOES AWAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SO JUST KEPT A
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WENT WITH JUST RAIN SHOWERS BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN CWA. NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF...AND BEHIND IT...AND ALSO SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE WINDS BEHIND THE
FEATURE. PRES RISE PROGS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT WINDS TO 50 KNOTS UP AND DOWN THE MO RVR
VALLEY. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EAST TO ALSO COVER
COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE MO RIVER. FURTHER EAST THINK A WIND
ADVISORY WILL COVER THE SITUATION JUST FINE. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. THE BEST COMBINATION/JUXTAPOSITION OF WIND/LOW RH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SC SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK GIVEN
SLACKENING WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF LOWEST RH...SO A WATCH WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE STRONG WIND WILL PROVIDE FOR
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CWA WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. PROBABLY THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN SETTLES OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS
MOSTLY INDICATE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOO FAST ON WEDNESDAY TO
ALLOW ANY DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO
THE CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE
ABR CWA LATER IN THE PERIOD...CLOSER IN VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT LATE IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WILL
TRACK ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 40 KNOT
RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM
     MDT/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ267-270.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN






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