Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 252300 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
600 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE NOTING THAT THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW OBS STILL SEEING WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS SO WILL LET HEADLINE RIDE FOR NOW. MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA SAW SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 OR EVEN 50 MPH. TRENDS ARE DOWN IN
SPEEDS AND IMAGINE HEADLINE WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BEFORE OR
NEAR ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME.

FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FIRST...THE ONE TOMORROW IS SHOWING
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN TERMS OF QPF PLACEMENT
AND TRACK OF BEST FORCING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD. HAVE INCREASED POPS QUITE
A BIT OVER THE WESTERN CWA DUE TO THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO RAIN. COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS LESS THAN AN INCH
FOR MOST AREAS. HIGHS MAY BE A TAD TOO WARM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY...IT WILL BE BASED ON HOW LONG CLOUD COVER
LINGERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP.

NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SETUP
OF SNOW CHANCES IN THE MORNING THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...IT APPEARS LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD STAY
LESS THAN AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN
QUICKLY GETS PUSHED EAST BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL THEN BE DOMINANT UNTIL ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH LOW PRESSURE DIGGING DOWN THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE DRY
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS H85 TEMPS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE ZERO. GENERALLY LOOKING AT
50S AND 60S FOR HIGHS...AND MAY SEE SOME 70S ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH BOTH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR/LOW END VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO
VFR LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN






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