Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 230856
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
356 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 355 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Widespread rain with a few embedded pockets of thunder continues
across the eastern cwa this morning, and will continue east into
minnesota by mid day with most of the upper forcing. Southwest flow
aloft remains over the region through mid week however as the upper
low is expected to drift over Montana/Southern Canada. This will
allow for periodic waves to pass overhead supporting additional
opportunities for moisture. The first of these subtle features is
expected early Tuesday for an isolated/weak elevated thunderstorm or
two. A more impressive wave ejects out of the 4 corners region early
Wednesday. Morning MUCAPE values increase to a few hundred j/kg,
with GFS supporting daytime MLCAPE values upwards of 2500j/kg.

Deep mixing with light westerly flow will allow temperatures to jump
back into the upper 70s/low 80s and for the humidity to drop. 850mb
temperatures will change little over the next few days though the
degree of mixing will probably very somewhat due to cloud cover.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

The long term starts out with an upper low pressure area in the
southwest U.S. lifting northeast towards our region. As this
occurs...a large closed upper level low pressure area will drop
southeast and into the Pacific Northwest into Friday remaining
through the weekend. After the southwest U.S. upper low moves
through our region bringing showers and storms...several more short
wave troughs spinning off the Pacific Northwest upper low will bring
several more chances of showers and storms to our region. Highs
through the period are expected to be near to slightly above normal
in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Showers and thunderstorms across central South Dakota will continue
to track east along a frontal boundary. Storms will exit the
KPIR/KMBG hours by or before 07Z...and will move into the KABR/KATY
TAF sites around the 07Z-09Z time frame. The severe potential has
waned significantly, but brief reduction to vsbys and gusty winds
can be expected as any storm moves over a TAF site. Winds will also
switch around to the west northwest behind the front.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr



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