Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 312329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
POTENT SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR OVER WYOMING. AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE...OMEGA AND UPPER JET MAX HELPING TO MAINTAIN BAND OF
RAINFALL THAT HAS TREKKED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO NORTHEAST SD
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING POPS FOR THIS
BAND OF RAIN AS IT APPEARS IT WILL SURVIVE MOST IF NOT ALL THE WAY
ACROSS THE CWA. HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS QUITE NICELY.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE BUT WITH MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY. ONLY QUESTION IS THE DEGREE OF AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIP. SOME MODELS GREATER THAN OTHERS...WITH THE HRRR
PARTICULARLY DRY AND SORT OF THE OUTLIER. MOST OTHER MODELS HAVE
ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SD TONIGHT.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND LINGERED THEM A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS NSSL WRF STILL SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER
SOUTHEAST SD AT 09Z TONIGHT.

A WEAKER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL
PROVIDE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS. AREAL COVERAGE DOES
NOT APPEAR IT WILL QUITE MATCH UP TO WHATS MOVING INTO WESTERN SD
RIGHT NOW...BUT WORTHY OF 20/30 POPS NONETHELESS. AGAIN A LACK OF
INSTABILITY TOMORROW SO SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH NO NOTABLE SYSTEMS IN THE AREA. 500
MB HEIGHTS RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
MOST AREAS.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD STARTS OFF SOMEWHAT ACTIVE AS FAIRLY
STRONG SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUT DO SUGGEST
CAPPING MIGHT FORCE MOST ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS POPS
NO HIGHER THAN CHC NEEDED AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THE FRONT IT LOOKS
FAIRLY DRY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVES
DOMINANT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ABOVE NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST...SO WILL STICK WITH A VCSH
MENTION AT KPIR AND KMBG. DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY...EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END BY MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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