Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 190930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
330 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 326 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

A strengthening area of low pressure west of the region will bring
breezy southerly winds and warm temperatures into the area today.
While southerly winds are not the best mixing winds, very warm
temps at 925mb in excess of 10C by peak heating should produce
highs in the 50s and 60s today. Some spots in south central SD
could see 70s. The 65 degree forecast for KABR is just five
degrees off the all-time February high. That said, increasing LLM
into the eastern CWA could limit the overall heating. While
temperatures in the 50s and 60s are not uncommon for February, dew
points in the 40s and low 50s are rare. The LLM, in combination
with a frontal passage and healthy LLJ could bring thunderstorms
to the region tonight through Monday morning. While the 0Z NAM
backed off on cape values, it`s still generating convective pcpn.
A few CAMS also suggest higher reflectivity tonight. Thus will
maintain the mention of thunder in the forecast.

PCPN should push east of the CWA by 18Z Monday with dry conditions
expected for the rest of the short term. Winds could be gusty Monday
afternoon behind the storm system. While highs on Monday will be
cooler, they will still range several degrees above normal. Tuesday
will be very warm as well as westerly winds should mix down 925 mb
temps of +10C.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

The start of the extended will see above normal temps continue. As a
sfc low moves into the Plains and the upper trough follows, cooler
temps will advect in for the remainder of the period. The system at
the end of the work week continues to shift south in every model but
the Canadian. Still too uncertain to pinpoint details due to the
changing track. Another upper trough and sfc high pressure will
transition into the Dakotas over the weekend bringing another shot
of cool and dry air.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Southerly winds will persist as a low pressure system nears the
region. Under this warm air advection pattern there is the threat
for low level wind shear. Models continue to show roughly 30 to
40 KT south to southwest winds around 2 km AGL, therefore kept
the LLWS mention in the forecast for KMBG, KPIR, and KABR through
about 09z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.




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