Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 191724 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1124 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Aviation discussion updated below for 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1025 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Skies are mostly sunny across the area but we will see a gradual
increase in high clouds into the afternoon, mainly for western
areas of the CWA. Adjusted sky grids accordingly. Otherwise, the
forecast for today is basically unchanged. Current highs are on
track and will see temps top out in the 40s and 50s across the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 352 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

With dry weather continuing through the period, the main concerns
will be winds and fire weather.

Expect downslope winds to increase this morning off the Sisseton
Hills, with gusts nearing 20-30kts and continuing through early
afternoon. Above normal temperatures will continue through Monday,
on west to southwesterly winds ahead of low pressure sliding across
southern Canada (over British Columbia and Saskatchewan today, and
Manitoba by mid day Monday). Relative humidity values will fall to
20 to 30 percent across most areas west of the James River Valley
today and Monday, as winds mainly stay at or below 15 mph. The wind
will be strongest Monday, pushing the grassland fire danger index to
high and even very high for most areas west of the James River
Valley.

Much cooler air and gusty northwest winds will move in late Monday
night and Tuesday, behind a passing cold front. Winds will increase
overnight, with some gusts nearing 25-30kts already by 09Z Tuesday.
Wind Chill values will fall into the single digits, with a few
single digit below readings possible. Confidence in temperatures
Tuesday afternoon are on the moderate to lower side. The ECMWF is
quicker to bring in the cooler air than the 06Z NAM, with the 06Z
GFS being more middle of the road on timing bit is warmer than both
wrt 925mb temps.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 352 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

00Z model solutions still showing no end in sight to the persistent
positive pna signal in the larger scale flow pattern. Other than one
or two brief periods when the flow flattens into almost zonal flow
aloft, the northwest flow saga continues.

As the dayshift alluded to, the GFS and ECMWF now appear to be
getting on the same page regarding a few hours of light
precipitation potential Wednesday afternoon/evening, when low to mid
level waa is occurring. Still a low confidence scenario whether
there is in fact any precip reaching the ground over the
northeastern forecast zones. If it is, precip-type is going to be
highly dependent on how deep and how warm (above zero celsius) the
column will become during precip`ing time. Model soundings indicate
the lowest 2k to 3k ft agl (KABR/Marshall County RAWS) will be the
slowest/weakest to respond to the warm air advection (shallow cold
layer), suggesting there could be a zone where p-type is snow,
changing/mixing with sleet before potentially (eventually)
transitioning to rain/freezing rain (surface temp? at precip time)
before ending. Again, that`s if there is any precip reaching the
ground; models indicating precip amounts would be rather scant (less
than a tenth of an inch water equivalent).

The rest of the extended forecast basically continues to be dry,
with the exception of some rather low end pops still hanging around
Friday afternoon/Friday night. Confidence remains rather low
regarding those precip chances. The only component of the Tuesday
night through Saturday forecast that maintains any semblance of
confidence is temperatures. All three 00Z GSM solutions (with
support of NAEFS ensemble 850hpa standardized anomalies output)
still pointing to things being below normal cold starting out
Tuesday night before the much anticipated warm up to above normal
warm for the second half of the week from Wednesday through Friday
(including Thanksgiving Day). And then, still expecting some push
back heading into the weekend as another blast of Canadian cold air
is forecast to impact the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast period, with
just some passing high clouds.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...TMT



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