Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 270213 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
913 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN SD LATE THIS EVENING
MOVING EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN.

A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER
UTAH...WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THANKS TO A FAIRLY GOOD LLJ. LIKE WITH
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. PCPN CHANCES ON THURSDAY IS A LITTLE
MORE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. SOME MODELS SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS WHILE
OTHER SUGGEST SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LITTLE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE LLJ SHIFTS TO SE SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE PCPN OCCURRING SOUTHEAST OF THIS CWA. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO LIMIT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. BETWEEN
GOOD CAPPING AND LACK OF MOISTURE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED...CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE FAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE MAY AFFECT THE PIR AREA. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE MAY
AFFECT THE TAF LOCATIONS. INSERTED SHOWERS/VICINITY SHOWERS IN FOR
ALL LOCATIONS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR


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