Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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244
FXUS63 KABR 142123
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
323 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST AS SFC TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TREND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO SEEING A
WEAK WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. LIFT OUT AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN SD. WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES SETTING UP...WILL ALSO SEE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. HI RES MODELS INDICATE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
CLIP THE FAR WESTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN UP THROUGH 00Z...THEN WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AND SEE
IF SOME SMALL POPS NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA FOR A
COUPLE HOURS THIS EVENING. ALSO ADDED FOG MENTION IN THE GRIDS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK WAVE DEPARTS.
MEANWHILE...AREAS WEST OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL SEE FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS THANKS TO SNOW MELT TODAY. THIS COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME FOG...WHICH COULD EVEN AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATER TONIGHT...BUT FEEL BEST POTENTIAL IS WEST OF THE JAMES
AND ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...BUT WILL HAVE
TO BE CAREFUL OVER HEAVIER SNOW PACK AREAS AND NOT GO TOO
HIGH...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH...THE BULK
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE START OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO A COUPLE WAVES SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS CLIPPER WILL DROP OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING.
MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SHORTWAVE AND HAVE SEEN A TREND UP IN THE QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS VARYING ON LOCATION OF HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS AT
THIS POINT (WILL FOLLOW GENERAL CONSENSUS)...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA
IS FOR 0.1-0.15IN FOR AREAS FROM TO EUREKA TO FAULKTON EASTWARD.
PRECIP TYPE WILL RANGE FROM RAIN OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO
SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST INITIALLY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.
THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF MIX AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN AROUND
THE IPSWICH TO REDFIELD AREA. THAT AREA OF PRECIP IS TRICKY AS
THE LOWER 2-3KFT ARE ISOTHERMAL AROUND 0C (WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
COOL TO THE WETBULB RIGHT AROUND 0C AS PRECIP STARTS)...SO SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS AND LOCATION WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCES
IN P-TYPE. THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AS COLDER
AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE LOW AS A SURFACE RIDGE (EXTENDING
FROM A HIGH NEAR WINNIPEG) MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY.

THE SECOND WAVE OF NOTE ARRIVES TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IT MUCH
WEAKER AND GENERATES LIGHTER PRECIP (GENERALLY AFFECTING
AREAS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MOBRIDGE TO REDFIELD). THAT LIGHT
PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR SNOW INITIALLY...BUT AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE CUTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING...COULD SEE A TRANSITION
TOWARDS FREEZING DRIZZLE...PRIMARILY FROM THE SISSITON HILLS AND
EASTWARD.

THE UPPER RIDGE (CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST) WILL THEN
SHIFT EAST INTO THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP OVER
THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THERE IS
LIMITED SNOW ON THE GROUND AT THIS POINT AND WILL BE MELTED BY
THEN. DO EXPECT SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE WARMUP UNTIL THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE
HOLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THE LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHEAST.
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOW CLOUDS AND
STRENGTHENING INVERSION (AROUND 3KFT)...AS IT COULD LEAD TO A
VERY DREARY AND COLD DAY OVER NE SD ON WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
LIMIT SOME OF THE WARMING ON THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
DEPARTURE. ECMWF LIFTS THE LOW CLOUDS OUT EARLIER AND IN TURN
PRODUCES WARMER TEMPS (THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING
HIGHS BETWEEN 59-67 FOR PIERRE). WHILE THAT IS WARM...IT IS STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM THE RECORD HIGH OF 70 IN PIERRE SET
BACK IN 1983.

THE RIDGE WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXITING
THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS DECENT ON
TIMING BUT VARY ON THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS...SO DON/T HAVE
MUCH CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION AND WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL
CONSENSUS. DOES LOOK LIKE IT COULD GET A LITTLE BREEZY ON FRIDAY
AND HAVE TRENDED WINDS UP SOME (GUSTS TO 25-30KTS). THAT TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW ANOTHER
UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY (WARMEST SOUTHWEST) BUT ALL
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN MVFR STRATUS DECK AFFECTING THE AREA
TODAY...WITH A SLOW EROSION OF LOW CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. KPIR HAS FINALLY BROKEN OUT OF
THE LOWER CIGS WHILE KMBG WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BE MUCH LONGER FOR KABR AND KATY...LIKELY SOMETIME THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHEN THIS
WILL HAPPEN SO WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ACROSS KABR/KATY WILL GRADUALLY
TURN WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE KMBG/KPIR WILL KEEP A
WEST/NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TMT



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