Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 250159
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
859 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

THREE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. A CLUSTER NEAR PIERRE, ANOTHER NEAR MOBRIDGE
AND ANOTHER MOVING UP ALONG THE 1-29 CORRIDOR. MOST OF THESE
STORM HAVE PRODUCED WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AND SOME SMALL HAIL. A
WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED AS AIRMASS STABILIZES.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WRAPPED UP WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR
BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS DRY AIR IS KEEPING A LID ON
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT MORE MOISTURE TO GET WRAPPED
IN LATER FROM MCS OVER IA/MN...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT SHOWERS DO NOT
LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HAVE BACKED OFF POPS A
BIT...BUT SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE AS LOW PULLS THROUGH AND SYSTEM
WRAPS AROUND MORE MOISTURE.

HAVE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

CURRENTLY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED BETWEEN KPIR/KMBG WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG HIGHWAY 12 IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
COLD FRONT/DRY LINE IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING JUST EAST OF KPIR/K9V9
WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S. MUCH OF THIS
CWA IS SITUATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LAPS ANALYSIS SUGGEST
MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR IS CURRENTLY SEEING SURFACE BASED CAPE
VALUES AROUND 300 - 600 J/KG. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIN
TOO. BASED ON HI-RES MODELS...CAPE VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO
1000-1500 J/KG IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND
THE WATERTOWN AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING THE
MAIN THREAT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHERE
CAPE VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 300 J/KG. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WANES
AFTER 6Z MONDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SHEAR OUT WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT REMAINING OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
READINGS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A FEW WEAKER WAVES WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES...WITH JUST SOME
MINOR STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SWING FROM EASTERN KANSAS TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TO WESTERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY MORNING...KEEPING A DECENT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA. WILL THEN JUST SEE SOME OFF AND ON
CHANCES AS THE LOW MOVES OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN NORTH OF
THE AREA. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND IN THE 50S
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE COOL ENOUGH IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SEE THE RAIN MIX WITH
OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR A TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING. KMBG AND KATY WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY
ANY STORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY...MAIN ACROSS NORTH PORTIONS OF THE AREA.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCARLETT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SCARLETT



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