Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 170234 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
934 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 928 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Cold front currently appx halfway through the cwa and continuing
to work east into the James River valley. Per satellite imagery,
skies should remain partly to mostly cloudy for the rest of the
night with precipitation chances starting to increase by morning
as surface low pressure approaches the cwa from the west. Will
let the weak low level caa working in behind this fropa play out.
No adjustments planned to the tonight period low temperature

UPDATE Issued at 703 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

The Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire. Gusty west or
northwest winds will continue for a few more hours before settling

UPDATE Issued at 545 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion for the 00z


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Main topic of conversation is the convoluted set-up with a shortwave
moving through North Dakota. Currently we are seeing a tight
pressure gradient across the CWA, and a north-south oriented wind
shift and a slackening of the pressure gradient across the far west.
Also of note is the very dry subcloud layer and sprinkles, and a
shallow but humid subcloud layer migrating northeast out of the
central plains into the south/southeast CWA.

Red Flag headlines remain in place as KPHP has shown how rapidly the
tongue of humid air will mix out once winds shift to the west,
though winds should slacken over the course of the afternoon as the
gradient weakens.

On the other end of the CWA there was some potential for drizzle/fog
in southeast counties, but thus far we`ve been able to mix, so fog
will have a difficult time being re-established this far north, and
at the same time the depth of the humid layer, about 4kft, doesn`t
appear to be deep enough for the mention of drizzle. Either way if
these elements did develop, would be short lived as the wind shift
to westerly after midnight will mix this moisture.

Next topic is the potential for some moisture this morning and
through much of Monday. There may actually be two period of light
QPF with an initial subtle signature of elevated isentropic forcing.
The better opportunity develops later in the day as the left exit
region ahead of a 150kt jet max moves over the CWA.
MUCAPE values are up to around 500j/kg but on closer inspection
regional profiles are just moist adiabatic and we are unlikely to
see much diabatic heating as winds become northeasterly, so will
drop mention of thunder.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

A mid level trough will track across the central part of the country
Wednesday through early in the day Thursday. The shortwave energy
associated with this trough will remain well south of the region.
The flow will then be northwesterly through the remainder of the
period, with just some weak energy moving through next weekend.

Surface high pressure will be dominant through much of the first two
thirds of the period, keeping conditions dry. A low pressure system
will slide across the Central Plains Saturday night into the day
Sunday, and may bring some light rain showers to the CWA. Cannot
rule out the potential for a few snow showers to mix in late
Saturday night as well, but no accumulation anticipated.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal throughout the
extended. Highs will be in the 50s to lower 60s, with overnight lows
mainly in the 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

For the most part, VFR conditions should prevail across the KPIR
and KMBG terminals through late afternoon Monday. Short range
model guidance suggests rain chances will be on the increase
during the day on Monday at the KMBG terminal.

The KABR and KATY terminals are experiencing some MVFR cigs right
now. Satellite trends and short range model guidance suggest this
mvfr condition should be short-lived (appx 3-6 hours)as a front
pushing east through these two terminals this evening will switch
winds around to the west or northwest and dry out the boundary
layer. Also worth noting, over the past 4 hours there have been
isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along this front as
it works east. Presently, one such convective cell is noted south
of Bowdle heading toward KABR. Over the next hour and a half,
should it hold together or perhaps be replaced by a new cell, KABR
could be experiencing some rainfall and perhaps a little lightning
and thunder between 01z and 02z.




SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Dorn is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.