Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 271136 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
636 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MAINLY FIRE WEATHER/WIND RELATED TODAY.
SURFACE TROF CONTINUES EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. BUFKIT MIXED DOWN
WINDS ARE ON THE LOW END OF ADVISORY LEVEL...WHICH IS MAINLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEPTH OF MIXING TODAY. GIVEN THE GRADIENT...AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE LYNCH PIN IS SKY COVER. THIS AM...THERE
ARE SOME UPSTREAM GAPS IN CLOUD COVER BETWEEN THE AREA OF
FAVORABLE DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THE UPPER LOW...SO BEST AREA OF
SEEING ADVISORY WINDS WILL BE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ALSO BE DOMINATED BY THE STRONG WINDS...DESPITE AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA THIS
AM. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND SO WESTERN/CENTRAL
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY BE DRYING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.

H85 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT AROUND -2C TUESDAY...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN WESTERLY FLOW FOR EFFICIENT MIXING ON WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH A SFC
HIGH ON FRIDAY MEAN A CHILLY START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
RIDGE BRIEFLY SHIFTS OVER THE PLAINS WHILE RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTH SETS UP AT THE SFC. SO SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE BREEZY BUT GOOD
MIXING WILL MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THEN A COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT MODELS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT AT THIS POINT.
STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND POPS FOR NOW. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY BUT ANY ASSOCIATED COLDER AIR
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A LOT OF VIRGA ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING DUE TO DRIER AIR
NEAR THE SFC. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
SATURATE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN IN KATY SO WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION
OUT FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE IN THE
WRAPAROUND BEHIND THE LOW IN THE CAA REGIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 20 TO 35 KTS NEAR AND WEST OF KMBG/KPIR.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CORSON-DEWEY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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