Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 221519 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1019 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
STRATUS CLOUDS HOLDING IN MAINLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
MORNING AND OVER INTO THE WATERTOWN AREA SHOULD SLOWLY BREAK UP
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND
DRIER NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY

DESPITE DEPARTURE OF UPPER WAVE...A FEW ELEVATED/WEAK STORMS CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL
SHIFT TO UPPER RIDGING WHICH WILL GRADUALLY COME TO DOMINANT THE
UPPER FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM CANADA WILL LEAD
TO DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY STARTS OFF RATHER INTERESTING WITH A PLUME OF
MOISTURE ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/DESERT SOUTHWEST. WILL ALSO SEE A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOP OUT WEST RIVER IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...H7 TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT FROM +12 TO +16C SHOULD
CAP US FROM SURFACE CONVECTION...THOUGH A PLUME OF H5 MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SOME ELEVATED/WEAK STORMS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CWA.
NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LOW LEVEL
COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS AS WARM ADVECTION IS LIMITED BY A
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...SO DESPITE A HOT MID LEVEL AIRMASS...THE
REAL HEAT WILL BE LIMITED TO WEST RIVER.



.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE FLOW PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED CAN BE SUMMED UP AS NORTHWEST
FLOW...OR SOME DERIVATION THEREOF. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
APPEAR TO BE THE FORECAST PERIODS MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING CONVECTION SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA.
THEN...DRIER/SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS START FILTERING INTO THE
CWA FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A CANADIAN-SOURCE AIRMASS/HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ESTABLISHING ITSELF AND LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY PRECIP-FREE AND
PROBABLY BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

GOT SOME SCT-BKN COVERAGE OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA...PRESENTLY IMPACTING
KMBG/KPIR. THIS SUB-VFR PHENOMENON COULD BE IMPACTING KABR/KATY AS
WELL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNSHINE MIXES THESE
CLOUDS OUT. AT THAT POINT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL PROBABLY HAVE A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF
ISOLATED/WIDELY-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD PASS OVER ONE OR MORE TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...TIMING/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS NOT YET KNOWN...SO WILL
BEGIN AMENDING TAFS LATER TODAY AS NEEDED.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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