Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 282041
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN CHANCES.
SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST TAKING THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. ON FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE ISOLD/SCT STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO
THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A DECENT LLJ AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT. STORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...TAPPING INTO THE LLJ/MOISTURE AND RIDE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST WITH LATE AFTERNOON STORMS IN ITS
VICINITY. CAPE/SHEAR/MOISTURE ALL LOOK PRETTY GOOD...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE BIG SIOUX VALLEY BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SOME DECENT ENERGY...WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WEAK ENERGY WILL STILL AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN MINIMAL ENERGY WILL BE
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...AND THEREFORE
THERE MAY NOT BE A GREAT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS HERE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL PRETTY MUCH BE DRY...WITH JUST A FEW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION THAT FAR OUT HOWEVER...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL THEN SEE A RETURN TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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