Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 110536 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE DIVIDING
LINE BETWEEN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...IN THE WEST...TO MUCH
BELOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH WEST SOME
TONIGHT. DEW POINTS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 20S...AND
LOWER 30S. THE ABUNDANCE OF LLM...IN COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY WINDS
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WESTERN
CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING ONE TO TWO
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. AM EXPECTING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WHERE ICE COULD BE
LOST IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH COULD CAUSE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ISSUES. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGHS ON FRIDAY OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA. WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD EASILY FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO. COLDER TEMPERATURES A LIKELY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
RIDING THE CRASHING UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION...AND PROBABLY A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA MACHINE GETS GOING. A COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE SATURDAY MORNING EVENTUALLY LOOKS TO GET SHOVED OUT BY WARMER
AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BY SUNDAY...A GOODLY AMOUNT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE REGISTERING HIGH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING. THE WARM AIR SHOULD BE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S UNCLEAR WHETHER ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...THE THERMAL
ADVECTION PATTERN COULD GO A NUMBER OF WAYS...SO WILL DEFER TO
SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPS...WHICH FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE SUGGESTING WARM
CONDITIONS HANG ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS OVER THE REGION WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR/IFR AS SNOW MOVES IN ON THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. LOWER
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE


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