Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 301727 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL SD. SMOKE
THICKNESS LESS OF A CONCERN TODAY...AND BETTER MIXING AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW US TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE SAW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT VFR ON SOUTHERLY BREEZES. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST OCCURRING SOMETIME IN THE MORNING FOR KPIR AND KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN


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