Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 181935
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
235 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

A surface high pressure will drift southeastward across the region
tonight. Winds will become light and variable as the high passes
through. Low temperatures tonight should fall into the 30s and lower
40s before southerly winds develop on the back side of the surface
high.

An upper level ridge and increasing WAA will spread across the
region on Thursday. With 925 mb temps in the upper teens, high
temperatures on Thursday should reach into the mid 70s, to the lower
80s. While winds will be gusty Thursday afternoon, increasing LLM
should limit fire weather concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

For the long term, the mid level pattern appears to be somewhat
progressive, until late in the period when major amplification
occurs as a strong ridge develops over the western conus, and
downstream trof digs into the southeast conus.

The best chance for any measurable pcpn over the forecast area will
be late Friday night into Saturday as a trof/sfc front move across
the region. Just a head of the surface front, enough llm gets into
the system such as to support weak cape profiles, and thus isold
thunder potential. Given progged uvm/moisture/instability, sct pops
look appropriate for this time period.  Another front slides through
on Monday, but measurable pcpn chances look pretty meager at this
time.

Temperatures will favor above normal through the weekend, but then
should slide back to normal next week as a cooler airmass moves
into the Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

A cold front crossing the region this afternoon will produce
breezy northwesterly winds to all terminals. The winds will
diminish between 23-00Z. Southerly winds are expected on
Thursday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SD



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