Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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461
FXUS63 KABR 241956
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
256 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

Surface high pressure will continue to support dry and tranquil
conditions over the region through Thursday. However, by early
Friday an upper trof with a couple embedded waves is expected to
moves across the region, with the strongest wave expected to
progress over the cwa on Saturday. Rain chances are possible with
all these features, and severe weather chances look fairly low at
this point given the lack of instability that is expected to exist
or develop with diabatic heating. Temperatures both Thursday and
Friday should be about the same but will flip flop on where the
warmest/coolest will reside. On Thursday the coolest temps should be
in the northeast cwa where we will see a fair amount of aftn
cumulus. On Friday the approaching system will spread clouds over
the western cwa, thus limiting afternoon highs out there. Overall
the mercury during the short range should average out below
normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

The long term portion of the forecast begins with an upper level
trough of low pressure over the region with a chance of showers.
CAPE values are rather unimpressive, but will maintain the mention
of thunder. The trough should push east of the region by Sunday
morning with dry conditions likely through at least Tuesday. Upper
level ridging, along with southerly flow from Sunday through Tuesday
will also bring above normal temperatures to the region with highs
in the 80s. Based on the GFS/ECMWF, Wednesday could be warmer and
drier than currently expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

VFR conditions can be expected for all terminals through the valid
TAF period. Breezy northwesterly winds this afternoon will
diminish below 12 knots around sunset.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD



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