Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 201125 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
625 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHOWERS SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
SD. SO FAR NO OBS IN OUR CWA HAVE REPORTED ANY
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
BAND THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA...STILL THINK
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ABUNDANT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WINDS WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DO SNEAK BACK INTO THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BY
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT MODELS KEEP TRENDING
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS WELL...WITH
HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSEN ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK
TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WARMER AIR WILL THEN RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
BACK UP INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN


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