National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KABR 170522
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1222 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions (gusts 35 to 45mph) will persist through the evening
  across much of the central and northeast part of South Dakota

- Showers will continue into the overnight and then linger Wednesday
  morning before dissipating.

- Near normal temperatures for Wednesday, trending cooler for the
  rest of the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Rainfall is currently confined to the area between the Missouri
River and the James River Valley. Models continue to show this
area of rain gradually beginning to track eastward, exiting the
area completely by mid morning Wednesday. No changes made to winds
or temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Upper and sfc low currently over eastern Nebraska will continue to
pivot toward Wisconsin through Wednesday afternoon. Good chances for
pcpn continue into the overnight hours, although a reduction in
coverage is anticipated. Whatever is left over Wed morning in the
east will likely die before noon. Gusty winds will continue into the
overnight hours east, and also increase to some degree along the
Missouri River valley late this afternoon/evening. Am contemplating
a wind headline for parts of SC SD, and may end advisory is east
early. Wed afternoon and night should be mainly dry, although energy
rotating around an upper low over south central Canada could bring
some showers to southern South Dakota at that time. Temperatures
will remain about average for the next day or so and then will cool
off some.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

For the long term a mostly dry forecast is on tap. A slowly
progressive, broad upper trof centered over SC Canada and the
northern CONUS will be the main influence through much of the
period. Energy rotating through the trof could bring some rain to
southern South Dakota on Thursday, but, after that, probabilities
turn quite low for measurable pcpn. Toward the end of the period
(Mon-Tue), a decent looking wave is forecast to drop into the
Dakotas/MN. On the backside of the Canadian upper low, air cooler
airmass will advect south over the forecast area beginning Thursday,
and persisting through Saturday before another warm-up ensues.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of MVFR/IFR CIGS are possible early with CIGS improving
through the course of the TAF period. Winds will remain out of the
north northwest.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Connelly