Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 130957
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS DOWN TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE
EAST. AS THIS HIGH MIGRATES SOUTHEAST WE WILL SEE THE BAND OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW PUSH EAST BUT WEAKEN...AND TEMPERATURES
MODERATE.

THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOCALLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TRACK HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARDS WHICH ALLEVIATES SOME OF THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ISSUES AS THE FINGER OF ABOVE FREEZING MID LEVEL AIR
WILL BE LIMITED TO JONES COUNTY WITHIN THE CWA. THAT SAID WE MAY
STILL HAVE SOME ICE INTRODUCTION ISSUES ON THE WESTERN EXTREME OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. LIFT IS VERY INTENSE AROUND 00-
06Z AT 25 TO 35 MICROBARS...SO ANTICIPATE SOME LOCALIZED EXCEEDANCE
OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WITHIN THE CWA. MODELS ALL VARY IN
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING DOWN TOWARDS
THE GETTYSBURG/PIERRE/MILLER AREA.

AS FOR WINDS...A 20MB GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30MPH. A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
LENDS TO LESS GUSTYNESS AND LOFTING SO VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE BAD
IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND OVERNIGHT. DRIFTING MAY IMPACT TRAVEL
HOWEVER LATER TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE MILD FOR SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 925MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C. THAT MILD AIR STAYS WITH US
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING IN
FOR LATE MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG WEST CONUS
RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF.  HOWEVER THAT PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN AS ENERGY COMES ON SHORE THE WEST COAST BY THE LATTER PERIODS
OF THE FORECAST. THAT BREAK DOWN OF THE PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO
WARMING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MILDER AIR FLOWS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS FOR PCPN...ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT THE FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. KMBG/KPIR WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WHILE
KABR AND KATY CONTEND WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ONSET TIMING IS
VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 6
     AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>036-
     045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-037.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE


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