Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 010525 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE REGION QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE APPEARS TO BE TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S AND 80S. A COLD FRONT IS
WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SKINNY BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY WORKING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE.

THE FORECAST DOES NOT REALLY BODE ALL THAT WELL FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEYOND THE TONIGHT PERIOD. AFTER TONIGHT...NO LOW LEVEL
FORCING OR FRONTS TO INITIATE CONVECTION OFF OF IN THE SHORT TERM.
WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING TEMPS STILL APPLIES THIS GO AROUND THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS WELL...DESPITE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.

IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE BETTER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AND PROG THE COLD
FRONT TO STALL OUT/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BORDER WITH
MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO IF CLOUDS/PRECIP GO AWAY LATER TONIGHT
LEAVING WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG BY MORNING...GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINT READINGS
CURRENTLY OVER THAT AREA. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD FOG MENTION AT
THIS TIME. BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA SETS UP IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
CATCH IS WHILE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE
CWA...EXPECTING TO SEE THE SAME TRICKY ISSUE WITH MIXING. DO
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WINDS KEEP A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND LIMIT
MIXING...THEREBY LIMITING HOW WARM WE CAN GET? OR DOES A PORTION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT OF WIND FOR BETTER MIXING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEREBY
INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ONCE AGAIN ACHIEVING MID TO UPPER
90S FOR HIGHS THOSE TWO DAYS? OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...LACK
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND HAS RESULTED IN
MARKEDLY LOWER HIGH TEMPS THAN CAPABLE OF REACHING ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL REQUIRE SOME INCREASED SCRUTINY /PERHAPS
CONSIDERING BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT?/.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT SUPERBLEND GAVE. THURSDAY LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY IN REGARDS TO 850 MB TEMPS AND WINDS. HAD
TROUBLE REACHING UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
AND SUPERBLEND GAVE SIMILAR TEMPS FOR THURSDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...IT APPEARS PATTERN GETS FAIRLY ACTIVE BEGINNING FRIDAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS THEN STALLS. A COUPLE
SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE IS THE
CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR FOG NEAR KATY AS A DISSIPATING FRONT POOLS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SD TOWARD MORNING. OTHER
SITES WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO
FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN


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