Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 022041
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

CONVECTION FINALLY BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A SLOW MOVING COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OF UP TO 3000 J/KG...EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF UP TO 40
KNOTS AND LITTLE TO NO CAP...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT HEADS SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE IN GOOD POPS AT THIS TIME FOR TONIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. OTHERWISE...THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH/END INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN. HAVE CUT BACK OR TAKEN OUT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
CWA. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST
LONG AS A WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO WHERE THE PCPN WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES. THE LATEST GFS IS
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PCPN. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ON
SUNDAY AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY
GIVEN TAF LOCATION IS A BEST GUESS. THUS WILL MENTION A FEW HOURS OF
VCTS FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. AFTER 10Z...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING CIGS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KPIR. CIGS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO FALL TO IFR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD



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