Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 221757 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1257 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

STRATUS CLOUDS HOLDING IN MAINLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
MORNING AND OVER INTO THE WATERTOWN AREA SHOULD SLOWLY BREAK UP
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND
DRIER NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
UPDATED FORECAST.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY

DESPITE DEPARTURE OF UPPER WAVE...A FEW ELEVATED/WEAK STORMS CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL
SHIFT TO UPPER RIDGING WHICH WILL GRADUALLY COME TO DOMINANT THE
UPPER FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM CANADA WILL LEAD
TO DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY STARTS OFF RATHER INTERESTING WITH A PLUME OF
MOISTURE ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/DESERT SOUTHWEST. WILL ALSO SEE A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOP OUT WEST RIVER IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...H7 TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT FROM +12 TO +16C SHOULD
CAP US FROM SURFACE CONVECTION...THOUGH A PLUME OF H5 MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SOME ELEVATED/WEAK STORMS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CWA.
NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LOW LEVEL
COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS AS WARM ADVECTION IS LIMITED BY A
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...SO DESPITE A HOT MID LEVEL AIRMASS...THE
REAL HEAT WILL BE LIMITED TO WEST RIVER.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE FLOW PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED CAN BE SUMMED UP AS NORTHWEST
FLOW...OR SOME DERIVATION THEREOF. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
APPEAR TO BE THE FORECAST PERIODS MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING CONVECTION SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA.
THEN...DRIER/SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS START FILTERING INTO THE
CWA FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A CANADIAN-SOURCE AIRMASS/HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ESTABLISHING ITSELF AND LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY PRECIP-FREE AND
PROBABLY BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA OVER
WESTERN SD...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL SD. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN EASTWARD EXTENT IS VERY LOW SO WILL LEAVE MENTION
OUT OF KMBG/KPIR TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR/TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.