Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 220820
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
320 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO NORTH
DAKOTA...AND IS LIKELY STRUGGLING WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SUB CLOUD
DRY LAYER. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG...WILL ALSO PROCEED FASTER TO THE EAST COMPARED TO
THE LIFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. THUS...WHILE WE
HAVE SEEN AN ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKE OR TWO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WILL STICK TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT JET.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H85 READINGS RANGE FROM +17 TO +20C EARLY
THIS AM...BUT WEAK COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
TROF. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...SO HIGHS COULD TOP 70 IN THE EAST. WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF...FOLLOWED BY
WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EFFICIENT MIXING RESULTING IN ANOTHER
ABNORMALLY WARM DAY FRIDAY.



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF A WESTERN TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY...EXITING TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A DRY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. DIFFERENCES THEN BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING LOW NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...THE GFS IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER. SUPERBLEND POPS
ARE IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...AND HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO
THEM. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. A RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.











&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE TERMINALS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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