Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 230857
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
357 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY

CUT OFF/QUASI BAROTROPIC LOW OVER WESTERN SD THIS AM. ISENTROPIC
FORCING HELPING SUPPORT NARROW ARC OF WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA...ALONG WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF RAIN MOVING UP FROM
NEBRASKA. ONLY SEEING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE
REGION...AS PROFILES ARE MAINLY MOIST ADIABATIC WITH SOME SKINNY
CAPE AOA 10KFT...A LEVEL WHICH IS COINCIDENTALLY WHERE MOST OF THE
FORCING IS BEING GENERATED. EVEN WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LOOKS UNLIKELY WITHIN NAM
PROFILES.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. AS THE LOW
DRIFTS NORTHEAST...WARMER MID LEVEL AIR WILL ALLOW FOR READINGS
SOME 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE GOING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S. AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK A PHASE SHIFT WILL OCCUR BRINGING IN AN UPPER
TROUGH AND SFC FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN TIMING THE
REGIME CHANGE AND THE POTENTIAL PRECIP. CURRENTLY STUCK WITH AREAL
COVERAGE OF ALLBLEND POPS BUT LOWERED THEM TO SLIGHT CHANCE DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.





&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
REMAINING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. CIGS MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH THE
PRECIPITATION.






&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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