Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 301733 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1233 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1017 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Forecast for today is generally in good shape. Did raise highs a
couple degrees here and there across the CWA based on quick temp
rises this morning. Also raised wind speeds a bit from the James
River and points west. Otherwise, looking for highs to rise into
the 80s today with a chance for some widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening hours, mainly
in central SD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 404 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

The Aberdeen forecast area will be stuck between 2 systems through
Sunday night, high pressure from the Great Lakes through
southeastern Canada, and organizing low pressure from southern
Alberta through MT, eastern WY, and far western SD. Today and
tonight will be the last of the northwesterly flow aloft, with small
shortwaves sinking across our region. CAPE values will again be
limited over eastern SD and west central MN, with showers that do
develop. Will continue to have plenty of moisture stuck between 600-
800MB. While there will not be constant clouds around 8kft, they
will be off and on. PW values will range from 1-1.3in today, and
increase tonight to 1-1.5in. Along with the increased moisture will
be a strengthening LLJ tonight. Will keep chance pops going across
much of the area for elevated convection.

Sunday will be the windiest day in the short term, with 15-20kt
winds by early afternoon right off the deck, especially west of the
James RV, and 30-35kts 925MB winds. Sunday will also be when the
500MB ridge moves in, in response to the low currently over northern
British Columbia shifting across Alberta. Will keep limited to no
shower/thunderstorm mention going during the daytime hours.

Monday night could bring another round of more widespread
convection, although the placement is still in question. The 500MB
ridge will exiting across MN, with a shortwave sliding across the
Dakotas. The main sfc low over Alberta/Saskatchewan will be tied to
the 500MB low, with a smaller low sliding across western SD. The sfc
low is expected to slide to central SD by the end of the day Monday.
May be too capped for much in the way of showers/thunderstorms
during the day Monday, especially over central SD.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

The long term begins with a weak surface boundary making is way east
or washing out Monday night/early Tuesday. This will bring some
thunderstorms with it. The models then show an upper level low
pressure area off the Pacific Northwest coast moving east, opening
up, and moving along the Canadian border through Wednesday night.
This will bring a second stronger surface cold front across our
region from later Tuesday night through Wednesday night bringing
chances of thunderstorms through this period. The wind shear will be
better with this system for possible severe weather. Otherwise,
slightly cooler and drier air will move into the region for Thursday
and Friday with surface high pressure. With warm 50h heights over
the region, Tuesday and Wednesday will be very warm/hot with highs
in the upper 80s to the mid 90s. With lower 50h heights and west to
northwest flow aloft, highs will be mainly in the 80s for Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the valid taf period at all
terminals. Isolated/Sct storms are possible toward evening and
overnight, with the highest probabilities being around KPIR where
I carried a VCTS mention.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...TDK



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