Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 272016
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRACK OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN
AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA...SO MAY SEE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION THERE. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS AND
WARMER AIR BEING PULLED UP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...STRONG MIXING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE WAA DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EAST TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S WEST RIVER. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD...BUT DISAGREE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY TRANSITIONING TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PRODUCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S EXPECTED CWA WIDE. THE RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AT H7 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TAKES THE H7 TROUGH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE H7 TROUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. SINCE MODELS DISAGREE...WILL RUN WITH SUPERBLENDS
GUIDANCE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
OF KABR AND KATY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS ONE MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD GRADUAL EXIT THE TERMINAL OF KABR AROUND MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE TERMINAL OF KATY AFTER 0Z. LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
MENTIONING MVFR CIGS FOR KATY AND KABR UNTIL WINDS INCREASE
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL NOT MENTION LOW CLOUDS/FOG FOR KMBG AND
KPIR AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD






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