Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 281726 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1226 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Issued at 1222 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1016 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Main area of rain has been confined to the southeast corner of the
CWA this have adjusted pops and weather accordingly.
No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Surface low is currently near Sioux City, with wrap around rainfall
moving northward through FSD CWA. Models continue to bring this rain
into the southeast CWA later this morning, with additional shower
and thunderstorm development through the day across portions of the
remainder of the CWA. It would seem the best precip chances today
will be across the southeast CWA where wrap around precip will be
occurring. Elsewhere, more of a hit-and-miss type of scenario as
convection will be more scattered in activity. With instability and
shear lacking once again, the severe weather threat will be very low.

Focus will then shift to Monday as strong shortwave energy digs
southeast into MT. Breezy southeast winds will draw up low level
moisture as a surface low develops across eastern MT and WY and
moves into the western Dakotas. A plume of moderate instability
develops across central SD during the afternoon with 0-6km bulk
shear values around 40 to 45 knots. SPC`s day 3 outlook already has
the western CWA in a slight risk. Models indicating convective
initiation across the western/central Dakotas Monday afternoon with
activity pushing east through the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

The mid level pattern will undergo a shift in the long term. Mid
level ridging building along the west coast will help dig a decent
looking trof southeast toward the Northern Plains early next week. A
strong front will accompany that system and move across the region
Tuesday night.  Showers/storms are expected with that front.  Behind
the system more showery weather is expected for Tuesday and
Wednesday but coverage will only be isolated to scattered at best.
The rest of the work week looks dry.  The front will also usher in a
batch of cooler/drier air out of Canada. Therefore temperatures
through much of the forecast time period will average out below


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur across mainly the
central and eastern portions of the CWA this afternoon. Cigs
across the east will generally be MVFR...while VFR cigs will
prevail across the west. VSBYS may fall into the MVFR category
at times with the precipitation.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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