Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 281715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Just
continue to refresh based on the latest trends. Have increased
winds slightly over the region, as gusts of 26kts have been
reported shortly after 1630Z at ABR. Increasing winds across the
board by a couple knots looks to do the trick.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Not too much going on in the short term period. A broad surface high
pressure will be over the region through Saturday, bringing dry
conditions and pleasant temperatures...albeit a bit below normal.
Highs today were raised a few degrees from previous forecast, with
the warmest readings over north central SD where 925/850 mb temps
are the warmest. Temperatures tonight will be cold once again, with
readings dropping into the 20s for many areas under mostly clear
skies and light winds.

Will be keeping an eye on the storm system moving into the region on
Sunday, with the main impacts arriving in the extended period. But
for Sunday, rain should be moving into the southeast CWA by the
afternoon. SuperBlend POPs seems a bit too quick bringing in the
precip based on latest model output, so have delayed the onset.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

The GFS has shifted the main system of concern a little farther west
Sunday night and Monday. The ECMWF continues to show greater
moisture availability. Both of these solutions could have
consequences for just how much snow the region sees at the start of
the extended. The current forecast calls for 2 to 4 inches along the
Coteau with highest amounts from Watertown south. Pushed high temps
lower on Monday with the clouds and precip. Nudged toward CONSRAW to
drop highs 5 to 7 degrees into the lower 40s east of the James
Valley. There will likely be a sharp temp gradient on Monday from
west to east.

More shortwave energy moves into the western cwa Monday night in the
upper trough. Any precip from this energy is expected to be rain.
Chances for showers will persist through Wed morning due to the
upper level flow. Then, an upper ridge will begin to build in Wed
night and Thursday. Temps will rise back to near average by the end
of the week under the ridge.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

VFR conditions will remain for the next 24 hours as a ridge of dry
high pressure remains in control. Wind gusting 18 to 22kts early
this afternoon will relax shortly after 22Z this evening, with
winds remaining around 10kts or less through 18Z Saturday.




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