Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 201717
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1217 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MN TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE
I90 CORRIDOR. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS ALONG
WITH MU-CAPE VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG BY 0Z. FORCING FROM A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL SD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD TRACK E-SE ALONG THE BETTER LLM. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER WITH THE COLD
FRONT. WITH LACK OF LLM...WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS TO LOW END CHC
POPS.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING DRY BUT
COOLER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. THE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S...IN MN...TO THE MID 70S IN CENTRAL SD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE LATEST COLLECTION OF LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN...BUT WITH SOME SLOWING AND
AMPLIFICATION AS ENERGY EXITS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECENT LOOKING UPPER TROF/SFC FRONT WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE SFC FRONT
SHOULD SEND IT EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THE FRONT THEN GOES THROUGH SOME WEAKENING AND AWAITS THE
NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY TO SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE
BOTTOM OF MID LEVEL TROF. AT THAT POINT THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME
MORE BAROCLINIC AND BEGIN HEADING EAST. NONETHELESS PCPN CHANCES
ABOUND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD AS COMPLICATED MID
LEVEL TROF CROSSES/EVOLVES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY START OUT NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN TREND TOWARD BELOW
NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT THEY COULD
BE DOWNRIGHT COLD AT WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED AND
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VCNTY OF KATY AFT 00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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