Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 061553 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1053 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF SMOKE
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY WITH VISIBILITIES LIKELY IMPROVING
SOME AS THE MIXING LAYERS DEEPENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

RAINFALL ALONG THE KPIR/KABR/KFAR LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE AM HOURS. A FEW HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES EAST...BUT WITH
STABLE CONDITIONS ABOVE 700MB NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
SHALLOW CU AND SPRINKLES. SMOKE OUT OF CANADA LOOKS TO CONTINUE
UNABATED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A FAVORABLE FETCH. STABLE CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
WORST VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...RETURN FLOW
SETS UP EARLY WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY WEST RIVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER
MIXING CONDITIONS SETTING UP AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE LLJ THU NIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WEST
RIVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY NIGHT A BROAD SFC TROUGH
SETTLES OVER THE DAKOTAS AND LINGERS INTO SUNDAY. COUPLED WITH UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THERE COULD BE SOME ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO BE SPOTTY
WITH LIMITED FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS ARE TAPERING OFF AND EXITING THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASING SMOKE COVERAGE EVEN AS THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING...NORTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SFC AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SMOKE MAY REDUCE VSBY TO IFR/MVFR
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE



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