000
FXUS63 KABR 130424 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1124 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures (+25 to +30 degrees) on Saturday,
  with many areas in the 80s. Elevated fire danger as well.

- Moisture potential for the start of next week, primarily in the
  form of rain (just a 20-30% chance for thunder). The
  probability of seeing an inch of moisture during the Monday
  through Wednesday timeframe is about 50%.

- Below average highs/lows on the order of about 10 to 20 degrees
  for the latter half of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are
planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The surface ridge axis will be centered along/near the SD/MN border
and along the Red River valley at 00Z this evening. As the night
progresses, this high will shift further east while the pressure
gradient tightens a bit over the CWA. This will allow for southerly
breezes to persist all night, while also seeing rather robust warm
air advection at 850mb. Therefore, we do not expect temps to fall as
low as they did this morning and are likely to remain above
freezing. Lows are forecast to range from the upper 30s to low 40s.
Also expecting some Coteau downslope wind enhancement, with about 30-
35 knots of SSW 925mb winds.

Big question on Saturday is just how warm will we get? Mild air
aloft streams overhead as 850mb temps climb into the +15C to +20C
range by afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny with decent mixing
winds as well. Guidance ranges from the mid 70s to mid 80s across
the CWA, but interesting to note actual forecast numbers are towards
the lower end NBM percentiles. NBM75 is closer to 90 degrees across
central SD. Will also be seeing a weak surface trough pass through
the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Winds are
expected to turn back to the north Saturday night as this trough
works its way through. But, as we approach 12Z Sunday, surface
ridging sets up shop over the Dakotas, although on the southern
periphery.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Sfc high pressure will descend south and east across the area on
Sunday in the wake of a back door cold front that will slipped
south. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected on Sunday compared
to Saturday`s readings, but still values will be well above normal.
Dry conditions look to prevail for most of us going into the day on
Monday. There could be a couple of stray showers skirting northern
zones as a disturbance rolls across ND. Upper ridging bounces back
northward into our region late in the weekend into Monday as a well
organized low pressure system tracks into the Four Corners region.
The pattern once again falls back into a trend we`ve been accustomed
to seeing the past 2-3 weeks where sfc low pressure organizes across
the Lee of the Rockies and shifts east-northeast out into the
Central and Northern Plains. This will once again be the case next
week as another storm system will shift northeast into our region
Monday-Wednesday.

Increasing precipitation chances are expected by Monday night
through Tuesday night. Lingering chances will spill over into the
middle of next week as well. Rainfall probabilities remain fairly
robust this far out. The probability of seeing a half inch of rain
in a 24 hr period from Monday night-Tuesday night sit at about the
50-80 percent range. Highest probabilities are mainly confined to
the eastern half of our forecast area. One inch probs for the same
time frame are at about a 50 percent chance, mainly across our
eastern zones. So, at this point, measurable rainfall looks like a
decent bet the first part of next week. Temperature trends through
the period will start off warm and above normal but then take a
gradual dive back into below normal territory by the end of the
week. High temperatures in the 70s and 80s are expected Sunday into
Monday. We`ll gradually cool as the storm system moves through the
region by midweek with highs in the 50s and 60s. Unfortunately,
looks like daytime readings in the 40s look probable by the end of
next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Saturday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Wise