Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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444 FXUS63 KABR 302328 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 628 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and scattered thunderstorms end by early evening across northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota. Still can`t rule out a strong storm or two south and east of the Watertown area through late afternoon/early evening. - At least 3 or 4 notable wave will move through the region, providing rainfall chances. Thunderstorm chances (including potential for severe storms) overall, look rather low through the period. - Near to below normal temperatures early in the period potentially warming to near or above normal beginning Sunday into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 At mid-afternoon, sfc low pressure and an associated cold front are tracking their way eastward across eastern South Dakota. Showers and thunderstorms have developed and advanced in a northeast fashion in conjunction with this system. A robust, negatively tilted s/w trough is currently shifting northeast across our region with strong southwesterly flow aloft of about 45-55 kts helping to kick off the convection observed across eastern SD this afternoon. Ingredients for severe weather is just lacking for the most part in our CWA compared to locales farther south of our forecast area. BUFKIT profiles at Watertown continue to indicate steepening mid level lapse rates prior to the fropa with some skinny CAPE developing late this afternoon. Our southeast zones remain on the northern fringe of the plume of instability. MUCAPE values off the HREF top our around 500j/kg late this afternoon across our far southeast zones before shifting east out of our area by 00Z. SPC continues to highlight portions of Deuel and Hamlin Counties for a marginal risk for severe weather the remainder of today. Mid/upper lvl clouds are quickly shifting off toward the northeast exposing the lower agitated CU across our eastern zones, so we are expecting some heating to take place still with the help of a little sunshine. CAMS do continue to initiate surface based convection in our eastern forecast zones this afternoon before it moves into western Minnesota. So, still can`t rule out a strong or two in our far southeast that may produce some hail and a localized strong wind gust or two. For the most part, the convection is all over and done with by early this evening. Increasing west to northwest winds on the backside of this disturbance will continue to gust on the order of about 25- 40mph into tonight before beginning to relax by late evening. Wind prone areas of the Sisseton Hills will hold onto the stronger winds until after midnight. High pressure briefly moves through the area during the first half of Wednesday. By the afternoon, it`s already east of the CWA and we begin to pick up southerly low-lvl flow once again. A persistent mid-level low poised northwest of our region will maintain southwest flow aloft over our area. Mid level warm advection kicks in once again by Wednesday afternoon helping to kick off more shower development across NE and lifting north into central and northeast SD Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 The long term portion of the forecast begins on Thursday with an area of low pressure and upper level trough crossing the region, bringing yet another around of showers. According to the grand ensemble, the probability of seeing a quarter of an inch of QPF is 35 to 55 percent. As of now, some of the deterministic models are indicating a possible dry period on Friday, before more showers cross the central and southern northern plains Friday night. The latest NBM is also trending drier on Friday. Ridging aloft begins to build across the area for the weekend, bringing a period of dry and warmer conditions. High temperatures in the 70s may finally return to the forecast area by Sunday. Unfortunately, increasing southerly winds are also expected with the NBM showing a 40 to 90 percent chance of gusts exceeding 30 mph Sunday afternoon. Beyond Sunday, there are some differences among models with the timing and evolution of the next upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system. Some models suggest showers will move back into the area as soon as Sunday night, while others suggest Monday through Monday night. The NBM has high pops, 30 to 40 percent Monday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped late this afternoon over northeast South Dakota, moving northeast. Lower (sub-VFR) cigs will continue to be possible for the first couple of hours at KABR. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions to prevail over the next 24 hours. Northwest winds between 20-30 kts with some higher gusts will be possible through 06Z, mainly at KPIR and KMBG before winds relax. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dorn SHORT TERM...Vipond LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...Dorn