Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 182341 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
541 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CIGS AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS ARE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN APPX 800FT
AGL AND 1400FT AGL. BASED OFF THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE LOOP...IT
APPEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS ARE ALMOST TO
KPIR/KMBG...WITH THESE TWO TERMINALS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OFF WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WHILE SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE TWO
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT FOR FOG FORMATION. IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW
STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH MODEL
SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE/ISOLD SNOW FLURRIES THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS IN CASE EITHER PHENOMENA FLARES
BACK UP AGAIN.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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