Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 220524 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LLM...FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE TEMP/DEW POINTS SPREAD WILL BE THE CLOSEST. HOWEVER THE
OVERALL AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLM INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING LLM...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO OVER COME
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THUS HAVE DELAYED POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
MODELS DO SHOW WEAK ENERGY LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN CWA EARLY
IN THE DAY. OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS APPEAR TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE
HOWEVER...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN TAKES HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
AND LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS STATES...BUT AGAIN MOISTURE SEEMS TO
BE LACKING AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...WHEN MODELS SUGGEST A WEST COAST TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
YET TO BE DETERMINED HOWEVER...AND POPS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST. DUE
TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES JUST KEPT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES SHOW AN ABOVE NORMAL TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY...ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR ALL LOCATIONS
BY 15Z MONDAY. LOOK FOR DEVELOPING SCT-BKN130 CLOUDS FOR THE
KPIR/KMBG AND KABR TERMINALS AFT 00Z TUESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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