Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 231736 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING JUST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MAIN
AREA OF SNOW NOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD...EXPECT THIS AREA WILL
SEE SOME SNOW YET LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. WILL ALSO LET THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST AS WINDS REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 30
MPH RANGE. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL IOWA WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING LIGHT SNOW TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. THAT
SAID...THERE IS A NOTICEABLE LACK OF PCPN IN MINNESOTA THAT SHOULD
MOVE INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND MID MORNING. HAVE LOWERED
POPS SOME FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 BY THIS AFTERNOON
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRYING TREND. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER LOOKS FINE FOR NOW...BUT
SUSPECT IT MAYBE CANCELLED EARLY AS MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA
LATER TNT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TNT. ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
NOT IN A REAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE INTENSITY OF PCPN ON THURSDAY
WHICH LEADS TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. THE 21Z SREF HAD A LOW
PROBABILITY OF THIS CWA SEEING 4 INCH OF SNOW BY THURSDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER THE 3Z RUN IS BASICALLY DRY. THE NAM/GEM ALSO SHOWS VERY
LITTLE SNOWFALL AS WELL. THE ECMWF/GFS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH
WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL
MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY TO INCREASE
POPS IN THE WEST...AND DECREASE THEM IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
DURING THE LONG TERM. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE REGION AT THAT TIME...PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...EAST INTO MINNESOTA. AFTER THAT IT APPEARS MAINLY DRY FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A POLAR PLUNGE OF AIR COMES SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF TONIGHT...HOWEVER UNTIL
THEN...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES.
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THE KPIR/KMBG TAF SITES BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
     FOR BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-
     HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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