Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 312045
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
345 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
DISSIPATE AS TIME GOES ON. THERE IS A GRADUAL CLEARING OF CLOUDS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...BUT AS ADDITIONAL WEAK ENERGY
APPROACHES TONIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THE THE EASTERN CWA REMAINS
UNDER CLOUD COVER WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS WELL.

MONDAY...WARM AIR AND MOISTURE MAKE THEIR RETURN TO THE REGION. 850
MB TEMPERATURES ARE BACK INTO THE TEENS /ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN OTHER MODELS/...AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO
STREAM BACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH
THE REGION. A 20 TO 30 KT LLJ IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CWA OVERNIGHT. MODELS HINT AT PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND OF COURSE THIS MAY OR MAY
NOT INFLUENCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IF IT DOES OCCUR.

THE GULF REALLY OPENS UP TUESDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. MODELS SHOW INCREASING CAPE AND SHEAR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THE GENERAL
IDEA IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AT
THE LOW LEVEL JET REDEVELOPS. MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR SNEAKING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
LOW...WHICH COULD INITIALLY LIMIT SOME CONVECTION OVER OUR
CWA...BUT ANYTHING THAT GETS GOING SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT
WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK GENERALLY ON THE WETTER THAN NORMAL
SIDE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WITH A 50H LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH DIGS IN AND CLOSES OFF
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WE COULD STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH LEAVES TO THE EAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN. OTHERWISE...SEVERAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE WESTERN US TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. STILL HAVE IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH...HAVE TRIMMED THEM BACK
SOME AND MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE THEM OUT OF SOME OF THE PERIODS IN THE
NEXT FORECAST. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT P6SM SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS WILL MOVE ON TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR



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