Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 170939
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

STRATUS EXTENDS NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AM.
WITH STEERING WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO MOVE LITTLE FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION TODAY. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS...AS WILL RECENT
SNOW COVER...THANKS TO WEAK MIXING AND H925 TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND -8 TO -10C. THE SPOT WITH THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IS THE
ABERDEEN AREA WHICH WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND LACKS SNOW COVER.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES. WILL
ALSO SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...SO MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS
ON HOW WARM DAYTIME READINGS GO HOWEVER.



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE REGION. MAY
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A QUESTION AS COOLER AIR DOES NOT LOOK
TO GET PULLED OVER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
STICK WITH MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN
SWITCH IT OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE REGION...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
POP ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY FOR NOW.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.








&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KABR/KATY...FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE WITH COLD/DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD VFR CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISBIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OVERNIGHT FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE TRENDS TO SEE IF
NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS ENDS UP DEVELOPING OR NOT.

KMBG...MVFR STRATUS APPEARS TO BE ERODING NEAR THIS TERMINAL. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...KMBG WILL BE JOINING KABR/KATY IN GOOD VFR
BY OR BEFORE 09Z.

KPIR...LARGE SWATH OF MVFR STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...INCLUDING THIS TERMINAL...AND SHOWS NO SIGNS OF MOVING
OUT ANY TIME SOON. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE HERE AS WELL...AND
MAINTAIN AN MVFR CIG FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OR UNTIL
CIGS FINALLY CLEAR OFF.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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