Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 172327 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
627 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Made a few minor adjustments to pops this evening to reflect
development on radar. Otherwise, still expect showers and
thunderstorms to slowly exit to the east through the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Rain showers will continue to slowly push eastward over the eastern
half of the CWA this afternoon, with additional shower and
thunderstorm development occurring across the west in association
with a frontal boundary over the area. For the most part, do not
expect any severe weather with this, but as the storms progress
eastward later this afternoon, they will encounter higher
instability, which may lead to a stronger, or possibly severe, storm
or two. The convective activity will come to an end around or
shortly after sunset, with quiet conditions the remainder of the
night and into Sunday morning. High pressure will drop over the
western half of the state on Sunday, but the east will still be
under the influence of the exiting low pressure system, so may see
some additional shower or weak thunderstorm development in the
afternoon.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s, with highs
on Sunday in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

The long term portion of the forecast begins with the Northern
Plains under northwest flow aloft. This pattern will keep
temperatures on the cool side in our eastern CWA, while the west
should climb into the 80s on Monday and Tuesday.

An area of low pressure crossing North Dakota on Wednesday will
spread warm temperatures over the region. Thunderstorms will be
possible in eastern SD Wednesday afternoon as a very pronounce dry
line interacts with an unstable airmass. That said, models are not
very enthusiastic with QPF amounts. A stronger system with an upper
level trough will cross the region on Thursday. This system seems to
be trending north with a low chance for thunderstorms in eastern SD
and western MN.

Beyond Thursday, models disagree with the upper level flow pattern
and additional chances for pcpn.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect KMBG, KABR, and
KATY for the next few hours before exiting to the east. VFR
conditions are expected, except in heavier showers where vsby may
fall to IFR. KATY may also see some MVFR cigs Sunday morning
before conditions improve by afternoon. Winds will increase again
out of the northwest on Sunday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Wise



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