Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 261130 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
630 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY

1018MB HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ALLOWING FOR A
10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
SOUTHEAST COMPONENT. H85 WINDS ARE ALSO AROUND 30-40KTS...SO WITH
DAYTIME MIXING ANTICIPATE THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS EAST TO SEE
A RATHER MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS...WITH BUFKIT MIXED DOWN WINDS
ON THE ORDER OF 20G30KTS. THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY MID DAY THANKS TO A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF MOVING
OVERHEAD. AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...WE WILL
SEE MORE EFFICIENT MIXING. WHILE WIND SPEEDS ALOFT
DROP...TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP AND DEWPOINTS CRASH. H85 READINGS
CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...+11C TO +19C...RESULTING IN HIGHS
SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

UPPER TROF/SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT/MONDAY. LACKING A
REGION OF FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS OR ISENTROPIC FORCING...LOOKS
LIKE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. WESTERLY
FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL AID IN MIXING. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS MIXED DOWN WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. RH
VALUES MAY BE TOO HIGH FOR RED FLAG AS OF YET THOUGH.

FAVORABLE MIXING CONDITIONS CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THOUGH H85 READINGS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AROUND -2C BY
THEN.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

WHILE THE SFC PATTERN WILL BE VERY ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED THE
DOMINANT FEATURE WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY. AT
THE SFC THIS WILL MEAN DRIER AND COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE WEEKEND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN. COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC
LOW TEMPS WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE 50S.




&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT. PRIOR TO WINDS INCREASING AT THE
SFC...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL THEN PASS OVER THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN
THE DAY...SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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