Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 111743 AAD
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1143 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

This update just to reflect headline coding changes at the bottom
of this product. All necessary updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Only adjustments planned to the today period forecast revolve
around wind chill advisory headline. Updated WSW forthcoming with
those changes. Clouds/flurries are dissipating across the east.
Just really cold and windy right now.

See below for an aviation forecast discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 555 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

A couple of quick updates were done to the hazards, to slowly end
the Winter Weather Advisories, and just go with Wind Chill
Advisories. No other significant changes were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 407 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Have transitioned most headlines to either nothing, or a Wind
Chill Advisory that will remain in effect through this morning.
However, wind chills still near criteria and then dropping back into
criteria for our northeastern counties resulted in a Wind Chill
Advisory all the way through Friday morning. Kept Winter Weather
Advisory going for the southeast counties until 12Z, where snow is
still falling and winds are still gusting 30-40mph. This is also
where mixed precipitation fell last evening, likely leading to
some slick roadways.

The Arctic high currently set up across central Saskatchewan is
quickly advancing. Temperatures are already in the single digits,
and will not fluctuate much as 850mb temps fall to -16 and -18C
today. Cloud cover will be tricky today, as there are plenty of
clouds still upstream. Did go a little more pessimistic with the
clearing, but may need to do more. Another issue with the cold air
advection is the increased potential for lake/river enhanced clouds
and snow off the Missouri River. Some of the CAM solutions hinted at
this. Increased pops and clouds in these areas, but not enough to
mention snow showers or flurries.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

The models continue to be consistent and agree really well from
Friday through Wednesday with the dominate theme of much below
normal temperatures with Arctic air. The main change early on will
be with the track of the short wave trough sliding across the region
Friday into Friday evening. The best lift and fluffy snow
accumulations will now be mainly west in our cwa with the Missouri
River counties. Otherwise, the models show one Arctic high pressure
area after another sliding across the region from northwest to
southeast through Tuesday. After Friday, the only time we have some
chances of light snow appear to be Saturday night into Sunday night
with some short wave troughs coming over the region along with
another Arctic boundary surging in. At this time, the models show
the heights building with warmer air pushing into the region
Wednesday.

Some light additional snowfall accumulations will have an effect on
temperatures, especially out west. Highs from Friday through Tuesday
should be mostly in the single digits either side of zero. Sunday
looks to be a little bit of a break in advance of an Arctic boundary
with highs in the teens and 20s. On Wednesday, Pacific air is
expected to return with highs in the 20s and 30s. The main issue
during this time will be the frequent bouts of bitter cold wind
chills and will likely need some advisories and maybe warnings. It
looks like Friday night and Monday night will be the coldest nights
in the long term with some 20s below zero expected east in the cwa.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Windy north winds are still drifting snow and occasionally very
briefly lofting/blowing snow in an isolated fashion. Conditions
should be VFR at all four terminals by 00Z this evening, with VFR
weather persisting into Friday morning. Sub-VFR conditions may
work into the KMBG/KPIR terminals Friday morning with some light
snowfall.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday for
     SDZ003>005-009-015.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Friday
     for SDZ006>008-010-011-016>023.

     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to
     noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday for SDZ033>037.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Friday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Dorn



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