Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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654
FXUS63 KABR 062335 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
535 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STORM FOR LATER TNT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IS THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE OVER THE REGION.  BUT FIRST THINGS FIRST.  FOR THIS
EVENING HAVE PUT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN.  LATEST 88D AND SAT PIC LOOPS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
THEN SKIRTING SOUTH ALONG THE BORDER AREAS WITH SOUTH DAKOTA. LATEST
HRRR RUNS SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
STRONG VORT MOVES THROUGH.  THEN FOR LATER TNT DECENT PRESSURE
BUBBLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE FIRST ROUND OF STRONG WINDS...PROBABLY WITH GUSTS REACHING HIGH
WIND CRITERIA.  THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE WIND UNTIL
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
KICK IN AND HELP TRANSPORT STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE GROUND. BUFR
SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT STRONG MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND THUS HIGH WIND
WARNING LOOKS GOOD.  ON SUNDAY IN THE EAST AM STILL LOOKING AT A
DECENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS.  MIX IN THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND HIGH WINDS AND YOU HAVE THE RECIPE FOR BLIZZARD LIKE VSBYS. NOT
A SLAM DUNK SINCE WE DONT HAVE MUCH SNOW ON THE GROUND
CURRENTLY...BUT FEEL THE SITUATION WARRANTS AN UPGRADE FROM A WATCH
TO A WARNING.  THE WIND DOES SLACKEN SOME SUNDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINS
PRETTY HEALTHY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL IN THE EAST MY MONDAY...BUT REMAIN MILDER OUT WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE WEST
COAST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK ENERGY AND A FAIRLY
SATURATED LAYER COULD RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT MODELS DO NOT PRODUCE ANYTHING
MAJOR IN TERMS OF QPF. THE ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND LACK
OF MOISTURE MAY PLAY A FACTOR. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING
STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WINDS
WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. KATY WILL BE
AFFECTED...WITH SOME REDUCED VSBYS ALSO EXPECTED AT KABR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ004-005-009-010-016-017-034>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ007-008-
     011-019>023.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-015-033.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR SDZ006-018.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN



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