Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 180526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...

...SEE UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE IN GOOD
CHANCES FOR TONIGHT ALREADY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA MAY BRING SOME 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS AS IT
MOVES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CANCELED WATCH FOR NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLIER.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA. THIS IS THE LEFTOVERS FROM EARLY MRNG
CONV THAT FIRED OFF ACROSS WESTERN SD. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THRU THE AFTN AND REMAIN SUBSEVERE WITH
JUST SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. NEW CONV HAS BEGUN TO FIRE FARTHER
WEST IN ASSOC WITH A STRONGER UPPER LVL S/W TROUGH THAT IS MOVING
THRU SWRN MT/NERN WY. THREE AREAS OF STORMS...WHICH HAVE TURNED
SEVERE... ARE CURRENTLY UNDERWAY...FROM SWRN ND SWD TWD THE BLACK
HILLS AND THEN SEWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NE.

SHORT TERM MDL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE ON TIMING OF THIS CONV
AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA FROM LATE THIS AFTN THRU EARLY MON
MRNG. HOWEVER...PLACE OF THE STRONGEST CONV ELEMENTS REMAIN IN
QUESTION. CAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1500-2000 J/KG AND DECENT BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHERE THE
STORMS ARE INITIATING. SO...ANTICIPATE THESE AREAS OF CONV TO
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WITH
TIME. OUR WESTERN CWA WILL BE IN LINE FIRST TO SEE STORMS LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS BEING
AFFECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MRNG. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BROADBRUSHED LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
ACTUALLY PLACEMENT OF CONV. ENDED POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
TWD MIDNIGHT AND THEREAFTER. REINTRODUCED THEM BACK IN OUR NWRN
ZONES BEGINNING MID MRNG MON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LVL LOW AS
NWRLY FLOW TAKES HOLD AND DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
PRODUCES CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHRAS/STORMS.

HOLDING ONTO HIGHER POPS FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EWD THRU MOST OF
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWINGS THRU AND RETURNS A DRY FCST TO
THE ENTIRE CWA. NEXT CHC OF POPS RETURN IN OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
THE END OF THE DAY TUE.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS
BREAKING DOWN IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE /HEIGHT FALLS/
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED
BY SOME FORM OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...INCLUDING A COUPLE OF
DECENT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECTING NEAR CLIMO NORMAL TEMPS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY...THE PROBABILITY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS START
SHOWING UP.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SOME LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT ABR AND ATY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD IN
MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. ABR AND ATY MAY BE AFFECTED BY THESE
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES AWAY.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...VIPOND
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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