Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 250556 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1256 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN OKAY SHAPE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS
EVENING.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MODELS. THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GOOD PRESSURE FALLS
AREA IN SOUTHERN CANADA INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THIS...CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IN COOLER AND DRIER
AIR THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
ALONG WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S
ALONG WITH NOT MUCH FOR WIND. OTHERWISE...HAVE DROPPED/DECREASED
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS NOW LIKE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH.
THE MODELS ALL INDICATE THIS TREND. THUS...MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN
CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS...SLOWLY TRACKING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOME ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS OUR CWA.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL THEN BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS WEAK
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD. THE UPPER FLOW DOES TURN BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A WEST COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO TRACK EASTWARD
BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. COOL TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING THROUGHOUT THE
TIME FRAME.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIR...KATY AND PROBABLY KABR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE KMBG
TERMINAL ARE A BIT HIGHER BETWEEN NOW AND APPX 15Z MONDAY /PER THE
RAPID REFRESH MODEL AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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