Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 071747 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1147 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1013 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR NOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN SW- AND HOPEFULLY SOME ACCUMULATION SO THE WARNING
PANS OUT. FURTHER WEST REPORTS OF AS LOW AS A MILE ARE COMING
IN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE AS IS
FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY TAME EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE
BREEZY. SPEEDS HAVE BEEN LARGELY SUB-ADVISORY BUT THEY WILL SURELY
INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AND STILL EXPECTING VERY STRONG WINDS LATER
TODAY. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO HIGH WIND WARNING WAS TO EXTEND THE END
TIME TO 06Z TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING TWO DISTINCT VORT MAXIMA OVER THE
REGION...ONE ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE OTHER OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AS THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES AS IT NOW APPEARS THERE ARE TWO SEPARATE
VORTS TO KEY IN ON...ONE OF WHICH WILL COMPLETELY MISS US. THE VORT
OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA HAS SOME SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT THIS WILL ALL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL LIKELY STAY OUT OF THE CWA
COMPLETELY. WE WILL NOW HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY
MOVING OUT OF MANITOBA...BUT THAT WILL NOT AFFECT US UNTIL PERHAPS
LATE MORNING. THIS VORT IS A BIT FURTHER WEST AND HI RES MODELS
ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL AS FAR WEST
AS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE VSBY
ISSUES OVER CENTRAL SD TODAY. WILL INSERT THIS WORDING INTO AN
UPDATED NPW LATER THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MISSOURI THROUGH THE DAY AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. PERIODIC LOW
VSBY/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNDER ANY HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/LOW
VSBY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT A TIME. HI RES MODELS ARE HINTING AT
SOME SNOW ENHANCEMENT IN THE COTEAU REGION WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING AT
THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP THE 15Z START TIME FOR RIGHT NOW. DUE TO
THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN SNOW SHOWER THREAT...HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED
POPS WEST A BIT AND ALSO SHIFTED BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL A BIT
FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WELL AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE US THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A GOOD THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA. AGAIN THERE WILL BE A
WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES AS COLDER CANADIAN AIR AND MILDER PACIFIC
AIR BATTLE IT OUT ACROSS OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FAR EAST IN THE CWA TO THE MID 30S
TO THE LOWER 40S FAR WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL PUSH EAST
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...THERE WILL
BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES COMING OVER THE WESTERN US RIDGE AND ACROSS
OUR REGION BRINGING A FEW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA HAS LED TO
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING (GUSTS TO 50KTS OVER THE WESTERN TAF
SITES) BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THE INITIAL WAVE
OF SNOW IS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME
AND HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1-2
MILES IN THE STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KATY DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. THAT ENHANCEMENT AND THE STRONG WINDS WILL
LEAD TO VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR
THE AIRPORT. WAS A LITTLE CONCERNED ON WHETHER THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES WOULD IMPACT THE SITE...SO KEPT VISIBILITIES JUST
ABOVE BLIZZARD VALUES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
     SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SRF



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