Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 261703

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1203 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Issued at 1107 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Some mixing layer cu clouds forming this morning and will continue
into the afternoon. Otherwise, increased winds earlier to breezy
across the CWA and lowered highs for the day a few degrees.
Updated forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Frontal boundary continues making eastward progress and is along the
SD/MN border at this time. Dry conditions are expected across the
area today with west to northwest breezes. Highs will once again
rise into the 70s under partly cloudy skies.

System for tonight/Saturday morning still on track to affect mainly
the southern CWA. Upper trough axis begins to approach the region
with synoptic scale lift ahead of the trough. Upper jet axis moves
right over the area with favorable entrance region. Will likely see
an area of showers move across the southern half of SD late tonight
through Saturday morning. Then, by Saturday afternoon the trough
axis begins moving across the area with cooling temps aloft. Steeper
lapse rates set up and could be looking at heating-induced afternoon
showers/thundershowers. Once again, instability is limited so not
expecting anything strong or severe, just your run-of-the-mill
showers or thundershowers.

On Sunday, cyclonic flow aloft continues with coolish temps aloft.
Will see another upper jet max moving across with now a favorable
exit region setting up. Could once again see daytime heating spark
off a few showers - mainly for eastern areas this time around.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Not a whole lot has changed since yesterday in the out periods.
Still looks like predominantly dry northwest flow is in play next
week. Per low level thermal progs in deterministic output, plus the
latest available ensemble output, should be seeing temperatures
steadily warm through the period, too.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

VFR conditions for all terminals, with gusty northwest winds
becoming light this evening and shifting to the west/southwest.
High based clouds and showers move into the KPIR/KATY and possibly
the KABR areas Sat morning.




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