Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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926
FXUS63 KABR 060554 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1254 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 818 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED TONIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS FINE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
HAS PRODUCED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY
LOCATION IN THE 80S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS
IS RESULTING IN NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS AS RH VALUES FELL TO TEENS
FOR SOME AREA. WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE AT THIS TIME
AS WINDS AND ARE RH VALUES ARE MARGINAL.

FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN ON FRIDAY AS WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE
RATHER GUSTY FROM THE NORTH ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...RH
VALUES SHOULD IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY POST FRONTAL.

PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY DUE TO WARM 700
MB TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN A SCHC POP IN THE EASTERN
CWA FOR COLLABORATION REASONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANGES LOOK BEST
ALONG I-90 AROUND 3Z SATURDAY. 700 MB TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR SCT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF POPS ARE ADDED TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA
WHERE THE SREF SUGGESTS SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO GET MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE REGION. THE FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND EXITS ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BRING A
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AND
ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND GRIDS FOR THIS. LATER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE
WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO SWING ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE TRACK OF THIS ONE IS IN QUESTION. THIS ONE PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE REGION SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS...SO LOOKING FOR
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK COULD POTENTIALLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES. WILL KEEP
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...MAY RESULT IN SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE KPIR...KABR AND KATY TERMINALS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN



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