Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 271946
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
246 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE EMERGENCE OF THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CHALLENGE. WITH LESS CLOUDINESS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER A LITTLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING JAMES
RIVER AND BIG SIOUX RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. OTHERWISE A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO REAL CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH NO REAL NOTABLE WAVES OF
ENERGY IDENTIFIED AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. 850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS CELSIUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S CELSIUS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MVFR CLOUD
DECK OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
HOW QUICKLY THIS DECK OF CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AND MOVE
EAST...BUT REMAINED OPTIMISTIC IN THE TAFS...WITH ALL SITES
FORECAST TO BE VFR BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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