Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 231139 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
639 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY

CUT OFF/QUASI BAROTROPIC LOW OVER WESTERN SD THIS AM. ISENTROPIC
FORCING HELPING SUPPORT NARROW ARC OF WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA...ALONG WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF RAIN MOVING UP FROM
NEBRASKA. ONLY SEEING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE
REGION...AS PROFILES ARE MAINLY MOIST ADIABATIC WITH SOME SKINNY
CAPE AOA 10KFT...A LEVEL WHICH IS COINCIDENTALLY WHERE MOST OF THE
FORCING IS BEING GENERATED. EVEN WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LOOKS UNLIKELY WITHIN NAM
PROFILES.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. AS THE LOW
DRIFTS NORTHEAST...WARMER MID LEVEL AIR WILL ALLOW FOR READINGS
SOME 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE GOING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S. AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK A PHASE SHIFT WILL OCCUR BRINGING IN AN UPPER
TROUGH AND SFC FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN TIMING THE
REGIME CHANGE AND THE POTENTIAL PRECIP. CURRENTLY STUCK WITH AREAL
COVERAGE OF ALLBLEND POPS BUT LOWERED THEM TO SLIGHT CHANCE DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS MAY FALL
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







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