Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 292006
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
306 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN
CANADA MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE
IT DOWN INTO SD ON TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. WITH LIMITED
CAPE OVER EASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A
MENTION OF THUNDER PRIOR TO 18Z. THERE IS NO FORCING MECHANISM OTHER
THAN SOME TRANSIENT WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. OUT WEST THERE IS A SFC LOW THAT WILL HELP TO DRAW
UP MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. CAPE IS ALSO
MORE ABUNDANT WEST RIVER. THEREFORE KEPT POPS HIGHER IN GENERAL WEST
OF THE JAMES VALLEY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CANADA DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. IT WILL REMAIN
AN ACTIVE PERIOD UNDER THIS FLOW PATTERN...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MOST NOTABLE OF THOSE
INCLUDE A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...AND A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. THE CURRENT
TIMING OF THE THURSDAY SYSTEM HAS IT MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AND PRETTY LIMITED CAPE AND SHEAR...SO OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS RELATIVELY LOW. THE SATURDAY /4TH OF JULY/
SYSTEM SEEMS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THE CURRENT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SUGGESTS WE ARE ABLE TO TAP
INTO GULF MOISTURE AND DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
COMBINED WITH 25 TO 35 KTS OF SHEAR...THERE IS CERTAINLY A SEVERE
POTENTIAL. STILL A LOT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY ISSUES...BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSELY WATCHED GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THEN...AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...A DISTINCT COLD FRONT BRINGS ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...IT LOOKS LIKE A
RELATIVEY COOL DAY THURSDAY /HIGHS IN THE 70S/ BUT THEN RETURNS TO
SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 80S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IT APPEARS THE KATY AND KABR TAF
SITES WILL BE THE MOST INFLUENCED BY SMOKE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
VSBYS MAY PERIODICALLY DROP TO THE 5 OR 6 MILE RANGE. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA TODAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR


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