976
FXAK69 PAFG 102324
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
324 PM AKDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
No significant change to the forecast as shower chances continue
for the next several days. Winds through the AK Range passes will
increase from the south today with gusts of 30 to 45 mph expected
through early tomorrow morning. Winds along the NW Arctic Coast
will continue to weaken tonight as a low near Wainwright drifts
north and weakens. The West Coast will be experiencing slightly
modified temperatures this weekend with the Interior and North
Slope seeing similar temperatures to today. A Flood Watch
continues for the Yukon River near and upstream from Circle due to
an ice jam 12 miles upstream from Circle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Level Analysis...
The 12Z deterministic models initialized relatively well. A 528
decameter low was located between Wainwright and Point Lay. To the
east-northeast there is a 545 decameter high which extends south
through Canada and into the Pacific Northwest. A 520 decameter low
was centered near Unalaska with an inverted trough extending
northeast into SW AK. The energy over the Gulf of Alaska will
surge northward today providing gusty southerly gap flow.

Surface Analysis...
At 22Z a 992 mb low was located near Unalaska and is expected to
continue to fill as it moves east to the AK Peninsula through
Saturday evening. A 1011 mb low was located offshore between
Wainwright and Barrow and will continue to drift north and fill
through Sunday evening. High pressure extended from NW AK across
the western Brooks Range to the White Mountains. A few subtle
areas of low pressure were noted on southern periphery of the
central Brooks Range and over the northwest White Mountains.
Isolated to scattered showers will continue in the Interior this
evening with isolated rain and snow showers along the West Coast
and North Slope. This trend of isolated showers continues for
Sunday and Monday as well.

Cyclonic flow was evident on VIIRS satellite along the Arctic
Coast near Utqiagvik and Wainwright and sporadic snow showers were
reported. Look for clouds and periodic snow showers to persist
tonight and Saturday morning as the area of low pressure moves
farther north into the Arctic Ocean. Fog may redevelop along the
Arctic Coast late tonight due to radiational cooling with mainly
clear skies.

Isolated to scattered showers over the Interior will continue
this afternoon and evening. Another round of showers, and perhaps
a thunderstorm or two, are forecast for Saturday. By Sunday
afternoon, the area of low pressure near Unalaska will propagate
to near Prince William Sound with a lobe of vorticity breaking
free and propagating inland along the ALCAN border. Falling
heights aloft and a surge of low- level moisture from the Gulf of
Alaska will result in widespread rain showers at lower elevations
of the Interior and snow showers in the higher elevations of the
Alaska Range and White Mountains. A few thunderstorms are possible
from the north slopes of the Alaska Range north and east into the
Yukon Flats.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High temperatures in the 50s to near 60 through this weekend.
Isolated to scattered showers are forecast off and on throughout
the weekend as more disturbances move through the area. Southerly
gap winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph are forecast
tonight and Saturday morning from Isabel Pass to Delta Junction.
Near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast with minimum RH
values of 20 to 30%. Wind speeds and gusts will be decreasing as
RHs fall Saturday morning and afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch remains in effect through this afternoon, but may
be pushed out longer depending on what the Riverwatch team
observes today. As of yesterday evening, a persistent ice jam
remains 12 miles upstream from Circle. Water levels have been
holding steady both below and above the ice jam. This has led to
some minor overbank flooding on the south side of the river, near
the upper end of the jam, approximately 20 miles upstream from
Circle. The flood risk at Circle has been gradually decreasing as
the ice slowly clears out of the braided channels. The ice on the
Yukon River between Circle and Fort Yukon continues to break up
slowly. Many minor jams were observed between Circle and Fort
Yukon. Water is high, covering gravel bars and into the willows,
but no overbank flooding has been observed. The gradual breakup
trend is expected to continue with the ice at Fort Yukon slowly
breaking up over the next few days.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
&&

$$

Huyck