000
FXAK69 PAFG 232056
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1256 PM AKDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A SUMMER DOG-DAYS LIKE UPPER AIR PATTERN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR. ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS INDICATING THE RIDGE PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NCEP/CPC
ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECAST INDICATES POSITIVE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES OF 2-3 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA FROM
THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWARD. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY POKE NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR MONDAY...THIS COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE
OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION...VIRGA AND/OR
ISOLATED SHOWERS...IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
FRI INTO NEXT WEEK. MIN RH COULD BE NEAR 15 PERCENT AT SOME
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT...SO ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS WOULD BE FOR LOW RH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE YUKON RIVER AT FORT YUKON HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUKON RIVER FROM BEAVER TO
TANANA. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE NEXT WEEK...ACCELERATED HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWMELT WILL
INCREASE RUNOFF INTO RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ224.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ220-AKZ221.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

$$

RF MAY 13