000
FXAK69 PAFG 121334
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
534 AM AKDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED LOW MOVING SOUTH
TO BE OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA SUN AFTERNOON. BY MID MORNING ON MON
THE LOW WILL BE OVER BETTLES. BY MON AFTERNOON...THE LOW BEGINS
DEVELOPS A NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
SURROUNDING TROUGH AXIS. IT MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TO OVER THE
BEAUFORT SEA BY TUE AFTERNOON.

NORTH SLOPE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EAST OF BARROW TO THE
BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH AND SLOWLY EAST SUN AND SUN
NIGHT. AT 4 AM AKDT MON...THE LOW WILL EXTEND FROM PRUDHOE BAY
SOUTH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND INTO THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON AFTERNOON...THEN
INTENSIFY TO 990 MB NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND LATE MON NIGHT. MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW...BUT IT SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 100 NM NORTHWEST OF BARTER ISLAND AND 150 NM
NORTHEAST OF BARTER ISLAND EARLY TUE MORNING. FROM THAT POINT THE
LOW SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH. SNOW ACCUMULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 12 INCHES IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND
4 TO 10 INCHES IN ZONE 203...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DALTON
HIGHWAY WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH SLOPE
TUE...THEN A LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND TUE...
AND MOVE EAST TO NEAR THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WED MORNING.

WEST COAST...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO THE
BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OVER NORTON SOUND AND EAST OF KOTZEBUE
SOUND THIS MORNING. BY MON MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF CAPE
ROMANZOF AND EAST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR OF ALASKA. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ENDED OVER THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA COAST ARE
ENDING OVER KOTZEBUE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE THE SNOW
TAPERS TO FLURRIES ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN 1
INCH. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 INCH OR LESS SOUTH
CHUKCHI SEA COAST. COLD ADVECTION HAS RAISED WINDS TO BRISK LEVELS
OVER MARINE AREAS OF THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA COAST...SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT...AND KOTZEBUE SOUND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST MON THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUE.

INTERIOR...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE INTERIOR FROM NORTHWEST
ALASKA THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE TO EAST OF BETTLES THEN SOUTHWEST TO
SAINT MARYS AND CAPE ROMANZOF. EARLY MON MORNING THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM BARTER ISLAND SOUTH TO FORT YUKON...FAIRBANKS...THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE...AND WEST TO NUNIVAK ISLAND. BY MON
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR
FROM EAGLE TO EAST OF DELTA JUNCTION AND SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE. UP SLOPING FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO GENERATE HEAVY ACCUMULATION OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...
MAINLY WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF AND ABOVE 2500 FEET THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...LATEST RIVER NOTES SHOW SLOUGHS OPEN AND RUNNING INTO
THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER AT MCGRATH AND NIKOLAI WITH PLENTY OF
OVERRUNNING...BUT NO OPEN LEADS. THE NABESNA AT NORTHWAY HAS OPEN
WATER IN THE MIDDLE. THE CHENA AT NORDALE ROAD HAS 100 PERCENT ICE
COVER WITH A SMALL OPEN LEAD AT THE BRIDGE AND LOTS OF SNOW COVER
REMAINING ON THE ICE. AN OBSERVATION OF THE YUKON RIVER AT EAGLE
SHOWED SIGNS OF DISCOLORATION OF THE SNOW COVER.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ205-AKZ206.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

DA MAY 13