Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FXAK69 PAFG 192239
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
239 PM AKDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING WITH A RIDGE OVER WESTERN
ALASKA WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TUE WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEST COAST WEST AND CAUSE THE EASTERN INTERIOR TO BE DRY
AND WARM TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TUE WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES
WARMER THAN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FROM CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.

A DEEP LOW NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA NORTH TONIGHT.

SURFACE...
A 1009 MB LOW 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE NORTH SUN
NIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THIS LOW TO JUST WEST OF CAPE
LISBURNE WILL MOVE TO BARROW TO CAPE LISBURNE TO PROVIDENIYA BY
4AM MON AND THEN MOVE NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA MON NIGHT AND
TUE. THIS IS BRINGING SNOW AND EVEN SOME RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SW FACING SLOPES ARE GETTING HEAVY SNOW
THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AM. ALSO SEEING SW WINDS 25G35 KT
ALONG THE FRONT NOW THAT WILL DECREASE TONIGHT.

A 990 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO BETWEEN SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AT 4PM WED WEAKENING TO
1003 MB. AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE BERING SEA WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING SEA MON...AND OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND WEST COAST TUE. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WARM WET FLOW
WITH THIS FRONT SO EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
ALONG THE WEST COAST MON PM-TUE. THIS WILL START TO RIPEN SNOW PACK
ALONG WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SIMILAR SOLLUTIONS THROUGH WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY IN EASTERN INTERIOR BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAJOR FLOODING OCCUR ED TODAY ON THE YUKON RIVER AT CIRCLE THAT
FLOODED MOST OF THE TOWN...BUT RIVER NOW FALLING THERE. APPEARS TO BE
SURGE OF WATER AND ICE THAT MOVED THROUGH EAGLE MAY 17 AND IS
MOVING RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM ON THE YUKON RIVER. EXPECT SURGE TO MOVE
TO FORT YUKON LATE TONIGHT OR MON WITH RAPIDLY RISING WATER THERE
AS WELL. PLAN TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING AT FORT YUKON. PLAN TO
ISSUE WATCHES FOR BEAVER AND STEVENS VILLAGE FOR LATER IN THE WEEK
AS WELL.

FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
SUNDAY FOR THE CHENA RIVER DOWN RIVER FROM NORDALE ROAD BRIDGE AND
UP RIVER FROM FORT WAINWRIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ220.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ209-AKZ217.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$

JB MAY 13