299
FNUS73 KAPX 100921
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Wells Road 2 RX...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
521 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected at this burn
site, though clouds will increase late. Winds will be light and
variable this morning. A lake breeze from Lake Huron will move in
early this afternoon, with east to southeast winds behind it. A
southeast breeze continues into this evening. Humidity levels will
bottom out in the mid 30s percent this afternoon. There is a chance
for showers after 2 am tonight, and showers are likely Saturday
morning.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........35 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph early in
                    the afternoon, then shifting to the southeast
                    around 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 10 mph shifting to the southwest 8
                    to 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6300-7600 ft AGL decreasing to 4700-5300 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Good to excellent (380.0-722.0).

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........12  25  30  41  57  61  70
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............58  58  60  61  60  60  60
RH..............42  40  37  35  36  36  36
20 ft wind dir..N   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..5   6   6   6   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.8   7   7   7   13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...7.0 7.4 7.6 7.2 6.3 5.3 4.7
Haines index....5   5   5   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NW  SW  S   S
Transp wind spd.10  8   7   8   9   9   8
Vrate kt-ft.....722 600 527 577 580 490 380
Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......2300-3800 ft AGL decreasing to 400-600 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (27.0-346.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........57  56  63  64  65  77  75  68  60  68  76  84
Weather cov.....                                CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............58  57  55  53  51  49  48  48  46  47  47  43
RH..............40  43  47  48  52  58  60  63  76  74  76  93
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 ft wind gust.13  13  13  10  10  10  9   9   9   9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 2.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SE  S   S   S   S   S   SW  S   S
Transp wind spd.9   10  9   8   8   9   10  9   9   9   7   8
Vrate kt-ft.....346 240 55  36  33  40  48  43  37  36  27  36
Ventrate Cat....GD  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning, then rain showers
                    likely early in the morning. Chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........52 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph late
                    in the morning.
Transport winds.....South around 7 mph shifting to the east around
                    9 mph late in the morning, then shifting to the
                    north 8 to 12 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-2200 ft AGL increasing to 2300-2400 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (31.0-269.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........89     95     90     84     78     71
Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............43     44     49     51     54     56
RH..............97     98     77     70     62     53
20 ft wind dir..S      S      E      NE     NE     N
20 ft wind spd..5      5      6      8      8      9
20 ft wind gust.9      9      10     13     13     14
Mix hgt (ft)....400    700    1200   1900   2200   2400
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Transport wind..S 7    S 7    NE 10  N 8    N 9    N 12
Vrate kt-ft.....31     49     121    150    207    265
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR

$$
Forecaster...JZ
Requested by...Corey Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413609.1/APX
.DELDT 05/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov