Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
278 FNUS73 KAPX 131509 FWSAPX Spot Forecast for Lost Creek Unit 8 RX...USFS National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1109 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 14. If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION...Sunny skies and rain-free weather is expected across the area on Tuesday. Early morning temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s at the burn site are expected to warm into the low to mid 60s during the afternoon. Light north winds in the morning will gradually turn to northeast winds between 5-10 mph by afternoon. Gusts to around 15 mph will be possible at times. Afternoon RHs are expected to stay between 30-40 percent, which is above near-critical thresholds. .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Max temperature.....Around 66. Min humidity........38 percent. 20-foot winds.......Light winds. Transport winds.....North 10 to 15 mph. Mixing height.......1100-2900 ft AGL increasing to 3100-4400 ft AGL in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor to good (129.0-447.0). TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........9 10 11 12 14 15 17 15 13 11 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............44 48 52 55 58 61 63 64 64 64 RH..............76 68 61 55 49 43 39 38 38 38 20 ft wind dir..N N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE 20 ft wind spd..5 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 20 ft wind gust.9 12 12 12 12 12 12 Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.5 2.2 2.9 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.3 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 Transp wind dir.N N N N N N N N N N Transp wind spd.12 15 15 15 12 10 10 10 10 10 Vrate kt-ft.....129 231 326 431 362 366 414 434 447 445 Ventrate Cat....PR FR GD GD GD GD GD GD GD GD .TUESDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Min temperature.....Around 37. Max humidity........85 percent. 20-foot winds.......Light winds. Transport winds.....North 9 to 13 mph. Mixing height.......2300-3800 ft AGL decreasing to 400-1600 ft AGL in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor to good (41.0-424.0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............63 62 60 56 52 49 47 45 44 42 41 40 RH..............38 38 41 48 56 64 68 70 70 75 79 85 20 ft wind dir..NE NE NE NE NE NE N N N NE NE NE 20 ft wind spd..9 9 9 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 20 ft wind gust.13 13 13 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 9 9 Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 3.1 2.3 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 Haines index....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 Transp wind dir.N N N N N N N N N N NE NE Transp wind spd.12 13 13 13 12 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 Vrate kt-ft.....424 370 288 192 110 57 41 44 53 48 45 51 Ventrate Cat....GD GD FR FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .WEDNESDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Max temperature.....Around 67. Min humidity........34 percent. 20-foot winds.......Light winds. Transport winds.....Northeast 10 to 14 mph. Mixing height.......600-2000 ft AGL increasing to 3000-4900 ft AGL in the late morning and afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor to good (63.0-521.0) increasing to good (479.0) in the afternoon. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........9 8 11 14 19 13 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Temp............41 45 54 61 64 66 RH..............85 76 59 46 40 36 20 ft wind dir..NE NE NE NE NE NE 20 ft wind spd..8 8 10 10 10 10 20 ft wind gust.12 12 14 16 16 16 Mix hgt (ft)....600 1200 3000 4200 4600 4900 Haines index....3 3 3 3 4 4 Transport wind..NE 10 NE 13 NE 14 NE 14 NE 12 NE 10 Vrate kt-ft.....63 154 408 563 535 524 Ventrate Cat....POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD GOOD GOOD $$ Forecaster...DJC Requested by...Travis Wiltse Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413974.0/APX .DELDT 05/13/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL travis.a.wiltse@usda.gov