Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 032307
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
607 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOME HIGHER WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT 1/10 INCH OR LESS AND LIKELY CONFINED
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT PERSISTENT  NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. PLAN ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT WE WILL STAY IN A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. WE SHOULD SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
SETTING THE STAGE FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG WITH PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FROST. HAVE KEPT PATCHY GOING IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGING THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WHEN HIGH WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN DROP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER AND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE HELD RAIN CHANCES IN THE
30-40 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE. WE THEN LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD REESTABLISH ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING STEADILY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
LINES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN BUT HAVE YET TO SHOW MUCH WESTWARD
EXPANSION INTO MINNESOTA. THE 03.21Z HRRR AND 03.20Z CR-HRRR STILL
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A WESTWARD EXPANSION SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO GROUPS WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES UNTIL THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PAST EARLY THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
AND THEN TO THE NORTH AND WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOWN ON THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EXPECT THE
SKIES TO QUICKLY CLEAR OUT. GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT BOTH
SITES. ALSO EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM AND THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF VFR CEILING WITH THESE CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

GUSTY WEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. PLAN ON ONLY A TRACE TO POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL. WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LOCALLY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP



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