Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 242114
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
314 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

ISOLATED FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA. PERSISTENT STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
ABOVE MUCH OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE VALUES. PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30S. THE SREF IS SUGGESTING
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
POTENTIAL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS. A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A PLEASANT CHRISTMAS DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL
INTERACT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY NOT BE ICE
ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOCATIONS THAT ARE BELOW FREEZING COULD
SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY START OUT
AS DRIZZLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING THEN WE SHOULD SEE
A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT.

WINTER THEN MAKES A RETURN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS COOLING
INTO THE 20S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY THE SINGLE
DIGITS. MUCH COLDER AIR THEN SETTLES INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH
THEN DIVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES IN BUT THEN RATHER CHILLY
TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON NEW YEARS EVE...IT APPEARS HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PLAN ON HAVING TO BUNDLE UP FOR THE NEW YEARS EVE
FESTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

AT TAF TIME...A SNOW SHOWER WAS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1 3/4
MILES AT KRST. LOOKING AT THE RADAR...THIS SNOW SHOWER WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTH OF TAF SITE AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL ONES
SO DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT KRST CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH 25.09Z AND
THEN BECOME MVFR. MEANWHILE KLSE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS.

AS FAR AS CLOUD COVER ON CHRISTMAS MORNING...THE LAMP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 25.11Z AT KRST AND
25.13Z AT KLSE. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...JUST
STAYED PESSIMISTIC.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BOYNE


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