Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 050823
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE SAND
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND THE MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60S ELSEWHERE
WITH VERY LIGHT/CALM WINDS. NO FOG AS OF YET...BUT TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREADS WERE CLOSING IN ON 1-3 DEGREES. EXPECTING SOME FOG IN
CENTRAL WI AND RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BURNING OFF
BY 8-9 AM.

FOR TODAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BUT KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES RESULTING. PLAN ON HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 75-85 DEGREE
RANGE.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER/MID-LEVEL PVA FOCUSES FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE LESS IN
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING. NOT LOOKING
FOR ANYTHING SEVERE...BUT WITH COOLING MID/UPPER LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE...COULD GET ENOUGH CAPE FOR PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE WAVE SLOWLY MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST WITH THE WAVE MOVING
OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS TREND.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
HOWEVER...IF THE WAVE MOVES OUT SOONER AS THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING...COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WHAT LOOKS TO BE DECAYING MCS ACTIVITY FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY HARD TO PINPOINT ANY TIMING ON THESE
FEATURES AT THIS POINT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS YIELDING LOWER-END 20-30
POP CHANCES FOR NOW.

TUESDAY LOOKING DRY AS RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS AMPLIFIES AND
BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO STAY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WHILE LIGHT WINDS EXTEND UP TO 7K FEET...THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
DEPRESSION STILL REMAIN IN THE 7 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE. DUE TO
THIS...JUST EXPECT SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KLSE BETWEEN 05.10Z AND 05.13Z. OTHER THAN THIS
POTENTIAL ISSUE...NO OTHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE



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