Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 261130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
630 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Much anticipated storm system/associated rainfall is upon us with
the center of low pressure located along the NE/IA border. Latest
radar based storm total rainfall estimate indicates anywhere from
1/2 to 2 inches has fallen across portions of northeast IA and
southeast MN. Even had a 2.46 inch report at a UCOOP station near
Austin MN. Thankfully rainfall spread out enough that it has not
caused problems yet (based on earlier call out to law enforcement).
Otherwise...generally a 1/10 to 1 inch so far for areas southwest of
I-94 in Wisconsin to the Mississippi River....with up to 1/4 inch
northeast of I-94. Continuing to monitor rainfall closely for any
ponding/flooding problems.

Latest mesoscale/wrf models indicate the heaviest rainfall is on us
now with a slow diminishing trend expected through this morning
after sunrise and then bulk of rain moved east of the area by late
afternoon/early evening as the low slips east toward Chicago.
Otherwise...clouds/rain will keep temperatures down in the 40s/lower

Some lingering showers coming to an end this evening but model
soundings show stratus will linger through the night in the wake of
the low. Cold air advection will produce overnight lows in the
middle/upper 30s.

Stratus may be stubborn in getting out of here as high pressure
slides southeast across the region and moisture stuck under the
subsidence inversion. A diminishing trend is expected during the
afternoon as south/southwest winds kick in on the backside of the
high...thereby mixing out the boundary layer. Look for highs in the
upper 40s/lower 50s across central WI to the middle 50s along and
west of the Mississippi River.

Warm air advection mid/high clouds expected to overspread the
area Thursday night ahead of low pressure dropping into the Dakotas.
Look for overnight lows in the upper 30s to the middle 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

A breezy day expected on Friday as that area of deep low pressure
moves from the Dakotas toward Lake Superior. Warm air advection on
gusty south/southwest winds expected to boost temperatures into the
upper 50s across north central the middle/upper 60s
elsewhere across the forecast area. Plan on south/southwest winds
generally in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts 30-40mph across the
more open areas of southeast MN/northeast IA.

A weak mid-level trough will ripple across a baroclinic zone across
the area for a chance of showers Saturday afternoon. Otherwise...
looks like temperatures remain above normal with highs topping off in
the middle 50s to middle 60s.

Looks like a nice Sunday as high pressure slides across the region
with highs in the 50s.

Rain chances return Monday as another low pressure system moves east
out of the Northern Plains. Warm air advection ahead of this low
looks to push temperatures well into the 60s.

Back to near normal temperatures on Tuesday with highs in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

While heavy rain showers and thunderstorms have moved east of TAF
airfields, expect scattered light showers to continue through the
morning with little direct impact to aviation operations. However,
low MVFR/IFR ceilings varying between 600 and 1500 ft agl will
continue through the entire TAF period. Stronger easterly winds
early this morning will slowly decrease through the day, shifting
to the northwest overnight.


Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Pockets of heavy rainfall will continue into early this morning
which is leading to some river rises along with the possibility of
some minor flooding in urban areas. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is
expected and there is the potential for a few locally higher amounts
up to 3 inches. Widespread flooding is not expected.
alert for ponding of water in low spots/poor drainage areas. River
rises may result in some action stage levels. But again, widespread
flooding in not expected.




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