Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 262316
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
615 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SMOKE...HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WAS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING IN FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LIGHT WIND LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
6 FT ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE FOG COLD BE
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD EDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION  SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER INCREASES AND DEEPENS
WITH TIME AS THE WAVE DRAWS CLOSER. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY INCREASING
THE SUPPORT FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.7 INCHES BASED
ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WE SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
PERHAPS 3 INCHES  ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
THERE REMAINS SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE LOW THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE FINALLY ENDING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN FACT WE
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AT SOME LOCATIONS FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RIDGE LOOKS
TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST IS FOCUSED ON THE VALLEY FOG THREAT FOR KLSE. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD AND A DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER - PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS -
FAVORING A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING/FOG SETUP. T/TD AT 23Z WAS 23
DEGREES...NOT FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG BUT NOT A DEAL BREAKER EITHER.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THE T/TD SPREAD CAN BE OVERCOME.
HRRR/RAP SOUNDINGS SAY NO...WHILE THE NAM/NAM-NEST SAY YES. TRENDS
THIS EVENING SHOULD BRING MORE CLARITY TO 1/4SM YES/NO AND IF
YES...HOW LONG QUESTION. WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO FORECAST BUT KEEP
1/4SM TEMPO GROUP. ANTICIPATE AN UPDATE PRIOR TO 06Z IF T/TD STARTS
COLLAPSING QUICKLY.

FOR KRST...SOME HINTS THAT MVFR BR WOULD BE POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THU...WITH LOWER
CIGS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RAIN FOR THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS-VSBYS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RIECK



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