Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 150751
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
251 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Main impactful weather concerns are on frost potential tonight.

Low pressure continues to track northeast across Lake Michigan and
Northern Michigan early this morning. Light rain and areas of
drizzle will continue for areas mainly along and north of Interstate
90 early this morning thanks to moisture wrapping around the back
side of the low. This activity will push east of the area by noon
this morning with gradual decreasing clouds expected mainly this
afternoon. We will have an increase in cloud cover this evening
in the 6-12 kft layer as a weak upper trough moves through. We are
not expecting any precipitation with this feature with drier air
near the surface and high pressure edging in from the west.
However, this will delay cooling a bit for the evening and
overnight hours which raises some questions for low temperatures
tonight. Thinking we will cool into the 30s and possibly upper 20s
in cold favored spots, but we won`t see these cooler temperatures
until later in the night thanks to the batch of clouds moving
through. Will be holding off on a frost advisory given the
potential for this cloud cover to impact lows.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Outstanding weather expected the rest of the week.  Dry conditions
expected all the way through Friday.

Weak ridging builds across much of the northern CONUS on Tuesday
then flow aloft turns more zonal. This will bring a weak frontal
boundary through the region on Wednesday. The boundary will only
create an increasing pressure gradient with breezy south winds
expected, especially Wednesday afternoon. Friday will be a rather
mild and breezy day across the region. In fact, high temperatures
could climb into the mid 70s at many locations given the latest
forecast model trends. Will have to keep a close eye on dew points
Wednesday and Friday with the potential for them to mix lower
during the afternoon hours. Forecast soundings are hinting at
this potential too. A cold front front slides east across the
Northern Plains Saturday and moves into the Upper Mississippi
River valley by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This
will be the next chance for rain across the area. Saturday could
be another warmer day with good mixing ahead of the front with
breezy south/southwest winds. We should once again see highs climb
into the lower and possibly middle 70s at many locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The area of low pressure at the surface was over south central
Wisconsin late this evening and will continue to move
east/northeast away from the area overnight. All the showers ahead
of the low are now well off to the east while the deformation
showers were moving east across Minnesota. These showers are not
quite as wide spread as earlier expected and should primarily move
by to the north of both airports. Still expecting some additional
showers to move across but with little to no visibility
restrictions expected. Primarily IFR ceilings across the area will
remain into Sunday morning before lifting to MVFR as some drier
works in and then up to VFR during the afternoon before scattering
out. Still expecting the winds to increase overnight out of the
northwest with gusts to around 30 knots before diminishing after
sunrise Sunday. The winds may not be quite as strong as the latest
forecast soundings from the 15.00Z NAM and 15.03Z RAP show rising
motion through the low level steep lapse rates when the winds
aloft are the strongest and by the time subsidence sets in, the
winds speeds aloft are already diminishing. Because of this,
capped the gusts at KLSE at 28 knots and KRST at 32-33 knots.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...04


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