Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 261945
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES AN MID-LEVEL WAVE
DEPARTING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TAKING BULK OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH IT. THERE WAS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WHERE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OR AREA OF
CONVERGENCE EXISTS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WERE IN THE LOWER 80S.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...THEN DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.

FOR MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MN/CENTRAL IA AND
PUSH OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO FIRE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF I-94.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR INCREASING HEAT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THIS
WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.

GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE THE WARM FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA WITH OUR AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
FAIRLY STRONG 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FAIRLY MUGGY CONDITIONS OTHERWISE MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TUESDAY LOOKS VERY MUGGY WITH MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY FASTER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...WILL LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL A VERY
WARM/MUGGY DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE WITH MID
70 DEW POINTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 95-
102 DEGREE RANGE. STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR A
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE...BUT FURTHER ADDITION OF CONVECTION/CLOUD
COVER COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO/THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER STORMS WILL BE SEVERE OR
NOT. THINKING RIGHT NOW THAT THERE WILL BE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN PLENTY OF JUICY AIR/CAPE IN
PLACE BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BIT MORE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL AS IT IS FAIRLY MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.

WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S.

DRY PERIOD CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...ALBEIT SMALLER-END CHANCES FOR
NOW...WILL COME INTO PLAY FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHS THROUGH THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
INVOF KRST THIS AFTERNOON AND TSRA COULD FORM AS WELL NEARBY.
THERE IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR TSRA TO BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE AIR SPACE THERE.

OVERNIGHT IT APPEARS LIGHT LIFT WILL KEEP SOME VFR CLOUDS AT THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. MORE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SRN
MN INTO IA LOOKS TO GENERATE A NEAR IFR CLOUD DECK BY SUNRISE.
DRIER AIR TOWARD KLSE AND FURTHER EAST SEEMS TO INHIBIT THIS
CLOUD DECK A BIT. HOWEVER...IF THE SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH...THERE
COULD BE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG THAT COULD PULL KLSE TO IFR FOG IN
THE MORNING.

IFR VSBY/CIG ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES BY SUNRISE. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO SUCH...BUT THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE IT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT


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