Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 161121
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
621 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MAIN CONCERN DEALING WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND ITS IMPACT ON  THE
AREA...INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND GUSTY
WINDS ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL IA. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI STARTING TO FOCUS
SOME -SN ACROSS THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...SKIES WERE
CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH HANDLING OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING LIKE
MODELS ARE TRENDING A FARTHER NORTH PUSH WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...IN THE FORM OF SNOW THIS MORNING...AND RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONFINED HIGHER POPS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH FOR TODAY...BUT A FEW MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP AND LATEST SREF
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TOTALLY PUSHING NORTH OUT
OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 16.00Z DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SHOWING PRECIPITATION HANGING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29 IN NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY. CURRENT THINKING WITH RADAR
TREND AND THE 00Z MODELS IN MIND IS FOR SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS
CLARK/TAYLOR WITH 1-3 INCHES THROUGH LATE MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HANG ONTO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NOW ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR...BUT STARTING TO HAVE MY
DOUBTS WHETHER CARRYING IT PAST 18Z GIVEN WHAT THE RAP/SREF MODELS
ARE SAYING. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A QUICKLY CHANGING SITUATION AND WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TODAY.

OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR TODAY AHEAD OF THE DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH SOME GUST AROUND 40 MPH.
RIGHT NOW...WINDS LOOK BORDERLINE FOR A WIND ADVISORY...BUT WILL LET
THE DAYSHIFT MONITOR THIS AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL VARY FROM AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 50S ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN WI WITH DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI. LOOKS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF OF THE DEFORMATION SNOW CLIPS CLARK AND TAYLOR
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES.
MEANWHILE...THERE ARE A FEW WRF MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS
FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OF THE LOW SWINGING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS EVENING. PUSHED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY BASED ON THIS SIGNAL. APPEARS PRECIPITATION MIXES AND
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LIFTING NORTHEAST OF I-94 BY
MORNING. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SOUTHWEST OF I-94 THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION
THURSDAY MORNING NORTHEAST OF I-94. REST OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 40 TO
50 DEGREE RANGE. A COLD NIGHT THEN SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF INTO THE 20S.

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV-ADVECTION ROTATES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MN/IA ON FRIDAY. THIS GIVES PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIGHT SNOW AND DAYTIME RAIN.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE AGAIN IN THE 40S TO A FEW LOWER 50S
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

A CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
THE 50S.

THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CENTRAL WI ON MONDAY BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WARMS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO THE LOWER 60S. LOOK FOR THIS RIDGE TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...THE WINDS AT
KLSE HAVE YET TO RESPOND TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND ARE STILL
AROUND 10 KNOTS. THIS SUGGESTS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH IN THIS AS THE 16.06Z NAM AND 16.09Z RAP WINDS ALOFT
APPEAR TO BE STRONG COMPARED TO THE LOCAL VWP WINDS...BUT WILL
INCLUDE IT AS OTHER RADAR VWP WINDS ARE SHOWING THE STRONGER
WINDS. THIS SHOULD END BY MID MORNING AS THE SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE AND WITH THE WINDS ALOFT FORECAST TO DECREASE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS. ONCE THE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS THIS
MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS AT BOTH SITES OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
WITH KRST AROUND 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
TOWARD EVENING AS THE MIXING DECREASES. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE CEILINGS SHOULD COME
DOWN TO MVFR AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KRST IN THE RAIN...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THIS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD GO THROUGH
OVERNIGHT SWINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
CEILINGS REMAINING MVFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

RIVERS REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS FROM HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEKEND. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF
THE KICKAPOO RIVER AT GAYS MILLS AND STEUBEN. A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AT WABASHA AND MCGREGOR. SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ARX FOR LATEST RIVER LEVELS AND
FORECASTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DAS



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