Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 220437
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1137 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016


.UPDATE...LATE THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU APR 12 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES REMAINING. PLAN ON MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY THEN
WE SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

AT 3 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE FOUND ACROSS CLARK COUNTY IN
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA. BOTH OF THESE WERE
LOCATED ALONG A BAND OF 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THERE WERE
REPORTS OF A WALL CLOUD AND PEA SIZE HAIL IN DAVENPORT/S FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAS OCCURRING IN AN AREA WHERE THE RAP WAS HIGHLIGHTING
THE NON SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER /NST/. THROUGH 21.23Z...THE
RAP IS HIGHLIGHTING ANOTHER AREA OF NST ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THERE IS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER THE RAP IS 5 TO 8F TOO HIGH WITH ITS SURFACE DEW
POINTS...THEREFORE...ITS CAPES ARE TOO HIGH. THIS IS LIKELY
ENHANCING THE NST VALUE TOO MUCH.

FOR THIS EVENING...THE 21.12Z AND 21.18Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT BOTH OF THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS BANDS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE BASED
CAPES AND 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKENING. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 22.03Z AND
22.06Z.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID-30S IN
TAYLOR COUNTY. WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED FROST...THERE WILL STILL BE A 2 TO 3F
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. THIS SHOULD DETER THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST
IN THAT AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

ON FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FROST IN THIS
AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY FOR A POTENTIAL
FROST ADVISORY.

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE 0-4 KM
CAPES WILL CLIMB UP TO 750 J/KG SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR
AND THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL CLIMB UP TO 45 KNOTS. THIS MAY RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEAST IOWA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DEEP
SHEAR LOCATED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. HOWEVER THE CAPES ARE ONLY
UP TO 500 J/KG. THIS CAPE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN STRATUS WITH
CLOUD BASES OF 1500 TO 2500 FT. THE STRATUS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH
OF THE TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
UPDATE...WETENKAMP



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